Natural Gas Price Forecast: Approaching Key Support Zone Starting at 2.23

Natural gas fell on Thursday and triggered a continuation of the bearish retracement. It dropped below the previous retracement low of 2.27 and looks to be heading towards the next lower support zone that starts around 2.23. Resistance at 2.17 from the early-February high marks the lower edge of the price zone. However, that range is an estimate and there is no assurance that it will stop the descent. Nonetheless, there is reason to believe that it might.

Targets 2.23 to 2.17 Support Zone

Within the 2.27 to 2.17 price zone are two additional indications on the daily chart that support the identification of that price zone. First, there is a descending ABCD pattern where the CD leg of the pattern has been extended by 127.2% of the initial AB decline. It reaches the target at 2.20. In addition, there is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that completes at 2.18.

Since today is Thursday, if natural gas stays around current price levels or lower heading into the weekend, it is set to end with another bearish weekly candlestick pattern and a close near the lows of the week. Regardless, this week will complete the fourth sequential week of lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows. As of the 2.26 low today, the price of natural gas has declined by 28.4% from the June swing high of 3.16 (A).

Challenging Below 200-Day MA

If support is seen in the price zone that leads to a bullish reversal, rallies will first need to contend with possible resistance around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.46. It represented resistance earlier this week and may do so again. Given how persistent the current correction has been to date, there is a chance for a bounce up into resistance, followed by a turn back down.

Either way, if the 2.17 price area is decisively broken to the downside, the initial bullish breakout from the top of a bottom symmetrical triangle pattern could eventually be challenged as support. That price level is at 2.00 and highlighted on the chart with a red box.

The current retracement followed a failed attempt to break out above the downtrend line in early-June. That created a lower swing high and kept the downtrend price structure in place. Failed moves can lead to fast moves and that looks to be what we’ve been seeing in natural gas since the June high.

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