Oil and Natural Gas Show Bullish Signals Amid US Dollar Uncertainty

During the US session, WTI crude oil (CL) broke above $70 and showed signs of price uncertainty. Prices remain volatile after the breakout above the 50-day SMA. The price moves above the multi-week high and shows positive momentum in the short term.

The primary headwind comes from rising concerns over US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs. These measures raise fears of a global economic slowdown, which could weaken oil demand. Market participants worry that reduced global growth may lead to a drop in fuel consumption, capping further gains in oil prices. On top of this, the OPEC+ group is set to begin monthly increases in oil output starting in April. Reports suggest the group will continue these production hikes into May, further limiting oil’s potential upside.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions offer a layer of support. Trump has threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and issued strong warnings to Iran over its nuclear program. These threats raise the risk of supply disruptions, which could tighten global oil supplies and support prices. Additionally, the US Dollar continues to weaken, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates due to a slowdown caused by the tariffs. A weaker dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities like oil, helping limit the downside. Overall, the oil market remains caught between opposing forces.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Breakout

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil shows that the price has broken the resistance area of the 50-day SMA at $70 and remains strong. The rebound from the support level of $66 is in progress, and the market is developing a bullish price action after a breakout from $70. The resistance lies around $72.50 to $73, which is aligned with the resistance of the 200-day SMA. A break above $73 may push prices further up, while a break below $66 would signal a strong price decline.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Breakout

The price rebound from the $66 support area occurred within the rising channel, where it has now broken the resistance at $70. The breakout from the falling wedge pattern is bullish. The short-term direction for oil remains positive.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Cup and Handle Formation

The daily chart for Natural Gas shows that the price is trading within an ascending channel and forming a strong bullish price action. A bullish hammer is formed around $3.60, which suggests the price may remain elevated. The emergence of a cup and handle pattern indicates strong bullish momentum and continued upside potential.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour natural gas chart shows an ascending channel formation. The price found support near the channel’s lower boundary and continued to move upward. The resistance area is between $4.50 and $5.00, and a breakout above this zone will likely sustain the bullish trend.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound from 103.50

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is consolidating around 103.50, forming strong support. A break above 105.20 will keep the index in an uptrend. On the other hand, a break below 103.50 could push the index down to 100.65.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows a double bottom pattern forming at the 103.50 support level. While this pattern suggests potential support, the overall price structure reflects uncertainty for the US dollar. If the index remains below the 200-day SMA, a break below 103.50 would signal further downside toward the 100.65 area.