Oil, Natural Gas, USD/CAD Analysis: Supply Risks, Geopolitics, and Technical Trends

WTI crude oil (CL) consolidates below $71, while Brent crude oil (BCO) remains under bearish pressure below $75. Despite the downward trend, supply concerns have supported WTI prices. The recent attack on the Caspian Pipeline pumping station has disrupted oil flows from Kazakhstan, raising concerns over potential shortages. While the immediate impact of the disruption is limited, repeated attacks could escalate fears of long-term supply risks. Markets often react strongly to supply uncertainties, which may lead to price volatility. If tensions persist, oil prices could be supported despite the bearish sentiment.

Moreover, the potential ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine may put downward pressure on WTI prices. A peace agreement could ease sanctions on Russian oil, increasing global supply. If Russian exports rise, the crude market may experience a supply glut, lowering prices.

On the other hand, the trade war tensions could further weaken WTI demand. The possibility of new tariffs from the US could reduce global trade activity and economic growth. Lower industrial output would translate to reduced oil consumption, limiting WTI’s price recovery. Investors remain cautious, watching geopolitical developments for further market direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price currently remains within the triangle formation and is under bearish pressure. Furthermore, prices will likely accelerate downward as the price stays below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the RSI remains below the mid-level. Nevertheless, the strong support remains at $68, which could limit further declines in the near term.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure

The 4-hour chart shows price fluctuations below the support levels of $72.50 and $71. A failure to break above $72.50 will keep WTI crude oil under pressure, with potential downside towards the $66 to $68 price levels.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Ascending Channel

The daily natural gas (NG) chart shows that the price has rebounded from the key level of $3 and exhibits strong price action. The price remains within the ascending channel after breaking out from the formation of the inverted head and shoulders. The RSI has broken above the mid-level, indicating that the price may remain strong. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs confirm a strong uptrend.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price has hit the $3.80 target at the mid-level of the ascending channel and has started a correction. This correction finds strong support around $3.20 to $3.30. A price correction in natural gas may likely result in another upward rally toward $5.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Daily – Market Uncertainty

The daily chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair has started a strong correction, breaking below the ascending channel after peaking at the $1.48 zone. The sharp drop from $1.48 suggests a further price correction towards the $1.3880 pivotal zone, where the 200-day SMA is located. The weakness in the US Dollar Index has contributed to this decline.

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart – Symmetrical Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair remains within the ascending broadening wedge, indicating strong price volatility. Currently, the price is dropping towards the $1.4080 support level, which aligns with the support of the ascending broadening wedge pattern. Meanwhile, the RSI has hit oversold levels, suggesting a potential short-term rebound from these levels. Therefore, traders may anticipate a temporary price recovery before the next directional move unfolds.