Oil News: Crude Futures Hold Range as Traders Watch Demand and Breakout Levels

Crude Oil Futures Edge Higher but Remain Rangebound

Light crude oil futures moved up modestly Monday but remain stuck between key technical levels at $59.23 and $63.70. This tight range signals a lack of conviction and the potential for a breakout-driven move in either direction.

A sustained push above $63.70 would confirm buying strength and open the door for a move toward the 50-day moving average near $68.21. On the downside, a drop below $59.23 could accelerate selling, with $56.19 to $53.09 as the next major support zone. That area provided a floor last week when prices briefly touched $55.12.

At 10:32 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.03, up $0.98 or 1.44%.

Tariff Exemptions and China Import Rebound Support Prices

Oil gained around 1% after the U.S. announced new tariff exemptions on key Chinese electronics. The move helped ease trade tensions and supported broader market sentiment.

At the same time, China’s crude imports jumped nearly 5% year-on-year in March, rebounding from a two-month dip. More Iranian barrels and a pickup in Russian deliveries contributed to the increase. These two developments helped stabilize crude prices to start the week.

Weak Demand Outlook Keeps Pressure on Oil Prices

Despite Monday’s move higher, oil is still down about $10 per barrel since the start of the month. Goldman Sachs now sees Brent averaging $63 and WTI $59 for the rest of 2025, with both benchmarks set to decline further in 2026.

The bank expects global oil demand to grow by just 300,000 barrels per day in Q4, with the weakest growth seen in petrochemical feedstocks. Meanwhile, the Brent futures curve has flipped into contango, signaling that traders expect oversupply to continue.

Production Slows, Geopolitical Risk in Play

The U.S. rig count fell for a third straight week, showing signs of slowing production. There’s also geopolitical risk in the mix. The U.S. is considering a full block on Iranian oil exports, though recent talks with Tehran were described as “constructive.” If diplomacy continues, some of that sanction risk could fade.

Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Within a Tight Range

Crude oil remains rangebound, with no strong directional momentum. Until there’s a breakout above $63.70 or a clear demand catalyst, the outlook stays bearish. Near-term action will likely stay inside the current range, with pressure building on the downside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.