Oil News: Futures Reverse Early Weakness—$72.08 Breakout in Sight

Prices Rebound as Technical Levels Hold, Kazakhstan Supply Disruption Adds Support

Light crude oil futures are climbing higher on Tuesday, staging a strong recovery from early session weakness. Prices initially tested their lowest levels since December 31 but quickly rebounded. The market found support at the 200-day moving average of $70.64 and is now pushing above the 50-day moving average at $71.57, attempting to build further momentum.

Despite the early volatility, crude remains within a critical retracement zone between $72.08 and $70.35. A sustained break above $72.08 could trigger a push toward $73.65, while a move below $70.35 would signal renewed weakness, potentially accelerating losses toward $67.06.

At 10:56 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $71.98, up $1.27 or +1.80%.

Kazakhstan Supply Disruption Offers Temporary Price Support

Brent crude prices also advanced on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session following a drone attack on an oil pipeline pumping station in Russia. The incident disrupted oil flows from Kazakhstan, momentarily tightening supply.

According to IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong, oil prices have been largely driven by supply expectations. The recent weakness in crude was partially offset by the Kazakhstan pipeline disruption, leading traders to unwind bearish bets.

A senior Russian official confirmed that Ukrainian drones targeted a pipeline carrying about 1% of the world’s crude supply. While the attack has raised concerns over short-term supply disruptions, sources indicate that the Black Sea CPC Blend oil loading plan for February remains unchanged.

OPEC+ Supply Plans and China’s Demand Uncertainty Weigh on Long-Term Prices

Despite the short-term support from supply disruptions, longer-term price gains appear capped. Analysts expect additional barrels from OPEC+ and Russia later in the year, which could limit upside momentum. China’s economic recovery remains uncertain, adding to concerns about demand growth.

BMI analysts predict Brent crude prices will average $76 per barrel in 2025, a 5% decline from 2024, citing oversupply, tariffs, and trade tensions. Furthermore, OPEC+ is not considering delaying its planned monthly supply increases set to begin in April, according to a Russian state media report. This follows OPEC’s earlier decision to postpone output hikes until April due to weak demand and rising non-OPEC supply.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Could Fuel Market Volatility

Traders are also monitoring potential developments in Ukraine-Russia peace talks, as U.S. and Russian officials meet in Saudi Arabia. Any progress could impact Russian oil supplies and market sentiment.

Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby noted that the market remains weighed down by bearish factors, with the Ukraine conflict being a significant wildcard. If Russian oil flows back into the legitimate market, it could further pressure prices, though multiple scenarios remain possible.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Resistance Ahead

While crude oil has rebounded from key technical levels, further upside will depend on sustained momentum above $72.08. Short-term supply disruptions provide temporary support, but longer-term bearish factors—rising OPEC+ supply, uncertain Chinese demand, and geopolitical risks—could limit gains.

Traders should watch for confirmation of a bullish breakout above $73.65 or signs of weakness below $70.35, which could trigger sharper downside moves toward $67.06.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.