Powell Declares Unemployment, Not Inflation, as Fed’s Top Concern

Powell Signals Fed’s Shift: Rate Cuts on Horizon as Job Market Takes Center Stage

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium marked a significant shift in the central bank’s focus. Powell emphasized the Fed’s readiness to cut interest rates, highlighting concerns about further cooling in the labor market.

Key Points from Powell’s Speech

Powell stated, “The time has come for policy to adjust,” signaling the Fed’s intention to begin reducing interest rates. He expressed growing confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2% target, with upside risks diminishing.

The Fed Chair noted a “considerable” cooling in the labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% – nearly a full percentage point above its early 2023 level. Powell stressed, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor-market conditions,” indicating a strong commitment to maintaining employment levels.

Market Implications

Powell’s remarks have significantly increased expectations for rate cuts. Traders are now pricing in a one-in-three chance of a half-percentage-point rate cut at the September meeting, with at least one such cut expected before year-end.

The impact was immediate, with U.S. stocks jumping and Treasury yields dropping after Powell’s speech. The S&P 500 gained about 1%, approaching a record high, while the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.

Fed’s New Focus: Protecting Employment

The Fed’s pivot from battling inflation to safeguarding the job market is clear. Powell emphasized, “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” This shift opens a new chapter for the central bank, potentially influencing its policy decisions in the coming months.

Market Forecast

Given Powell’s dovish tone and the Fed’s clear prioritization of the labor market, we anticipate a bullish outlook for equities in the short term. The potential for aggressive rate cuts could fuel further market gains, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates.

For fixed income, expectations of rate cuts are likely to drive bond prices higher and yields lower. Forex traders should be prepared for potential dollar weakness as the interest rate differential with other major currencies narrows.

Investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data, particularly the August jobs report, as it could significantly influence the Fed’s decision on the timing and size of the first rate cut.