Silver Breakout Watch: $31.29 in Sight if Bulls Sustain Momentum Above $30.61

Silver Steadies with $30.61 as Key Pivot

Silver prices recovered from an earlier decline on Tuesday, currently holding just above $30.61, a pivotal level for market direction. A sustained move above this threshold could push prices toward $31.29, while a decline below it may lead to a retest of $29.68. The metal is trading between the 50-day moving average at $32.79, acting as resistance, and the 200-day moving average at $29.00, providing support.

Geopolitical Easing Dents Safe-Haven Demand

Silver’s appeal as a safe haven softened following reports of potential ceasefire discussions between Israel and Hezbollah. This eased geopolitical concerns, affecting bullion markets broadly. Concurrently, market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by a potential pro-business tilt under President-elect Donald Trump, who has nominated hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary. Bessent’s anticipated policies, such as tariff adjustments and deregulatory measures, may reduce inflation concerns, contributing to market uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Investors Eye U.S. Economic Data and Fed Policy

Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. consumer confidence data and the release of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes. These updates will likely clarify the prospects of a December interest rate cut, currently estimated at a 59.6% probability for a 25-basis-point reduction. A rate cut could bolster silver and gold prices by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic indicators may weigh on the metals market.

Rising Treasury Yields Add Pressure

U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday as anticipation builds for Federal Reserve commentary and key economic data. Higher yields typically diminish silver’s appeal as a safe-haven investment, adding further complexity to the metal’s near-term outlook.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Silver’s short-term direction hinges on its ability to hold above $30.61. A break above this level could ignite bullish momentum targeting $31.29 and potentially $32.79. However, a move below $29.68 would likely signal bearish sentiment, with further downside risk toward $29.00. Traders will closely track U.S. economic data and Fed signals for cues on interest rates, which remain pivotal to silver’s performance.

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