Silver markets had tried to form a bottom for a while over the last couple of sessions, but on Thursday they look very vulnerable yet again.
Silver has gapped lower in the futures contract kickoff the Thursday session, showing signs of weakness yet again. By doing so, it looks as if the market is trying to figure out what it wants to do with itself, as the silver market is highly sensitive to risk appetite. As long as there are a lot of concerns out there, silver is going to struggle, and especially if the US dollar starts to strengthen as there is a huge negative correlation between the 2 markets.
The 200-Day EMA sits at the $22 level, and it is offering a bit of a barrier. If we were to break above there, it would obviously be a very bullish sign, but I would not hold my breath for something like that to happen anytime soon. After all, the concerns about silver go far beyond just the US dollar and risk appetite. Remember, silver is an industrial metal as well, not just a precious metal. Because of this, there are concerns as to whether or not the impending recession could dampen demand for silver, which obviously means that prices would have to get lower.
From a technical analysis standpoint, we have bounced from the 50% Fibonacci level, but it looks like we are hell-bent on trying that area again. Looking back during the month of November, we had seen quite a bit of support and resistance in that area, so I think there is a huge battle lining up near the $21 level. Rallies at this point in time will face a lot of headwinds, but it must be noted that silver tends to be very volatile, meaning that it could be a sudden run higher.
Pay attention to gold, because the 2 metals do tend to move in the same overall direction. It’s also worth noting that we had sold off quite drastically from that consolidation near $24, and it’s hard to believe that all of the sellers have suddenly disappeared. In other words, our rally is going to have to fight through a lot of noise on the way back up. It looks like were heading to $21 in the short term for what I can see.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.