The silver market has fallen rather significantly during trading on Wednesday, as the 200-Day EMA was broken through.
Silver has gotten crushed during early trading on Wednesday, as the US dollar strengthened, putting downward pressure on the market. By breaking through the 200-Day EMA, the futures market dumped, causing mayhem. At this point, it looks like the 61.8% Fibonacci level may be getting tested, but I think given enough time, we have a situation where the market may find some support. That being said, if we give up the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it’s likely that we continue to see downward pressure, threatening the $22 level. Anything below the $22 level opens up the floodgates of selling pressure, almost certainly sending silver down to $20.
Keep in mind that the US Dollar Index quite often has a negative correlation to the silver market, so we need to pay close attention to what’s going on over there. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it always works out that way, just that the 2 do tend to move in opposite directions over the longer term. As long as there is US dollar strength, that will continue to hurt silver in general.
Silver is also an industrial metal, so that comes into play as well. With this being the case, I think you got a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not you can find value. The question of course is whether or not the value is to be found in the US dollar, or if it is to be found in silver? It’s probably a little early to tell, but it certainly looks as if fear has crept back into the market, with central banks around the world remaining very tight. Because of this, I think you have to worry about precious metals if interest rates start to spike again, something that we are starting to see during the day.
I expect to see a lot of volatility in the silver market over the next couple of days, but I do think we get some clarity soon. Be cautious with position sizing, because silver can be an absolute monster. At this point, there’s no real reason to think that the market won’t have to make its decision, and once it does it should be rather massive.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.