Silver (XAG) Forecast: $32.56 Pivot in Play—Breakout or Breakdown?

Silver Stalls Below Key Pivot as Gold Surges on Political Risk

Silver lagged gold on Tuesday despite heightened safe-haven demand triggered by renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve. Gold’s surge to an all-time high of $3,500.20, driven by former President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, underscored the market’s sensitivity to political interference and central bank credibility. Silver, however, remained stuck below a critical technical pivot, frustrating bulls who expected spillover support from the gold rally.

At 11:06 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $32.68, unchanged.

Silver Struggles to Clear Technical Resistance

Silver hovered near the 50-day moving average at $32.56, which has become a crucial intraday pivot. Although a move above this level would typically signal buyer strength, the metal failed to breach last week’s high at $33.11—necessary to unlock momentum toward the $34.59–$34.87 resistance band.

Without a strong push through that ceiling, upside conviction remains soft. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 61.8% retracement level of $32.19. A break below this would expose $31.45 and potentially the 200-day moving average at $30.97.

Gold Rally Highlights Diverging Safe-Haven Flows

While silver struggled, gold benefited from a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar and a 2.4% drop in equities, following Trump’s call for aggressive rate cuts and labeling Powell a “major loser.” The political noise rattled market confidence and reinforced gold’s role as a store of value during institutional stress.

The fact that gold didn’t suffer margin-call-driven liquidation—despite the equity drawdown—suggests traders remain firmly positioned in bullion. Silver, in contrast, may be seeing more tactical positioning rather than long-term conviction.

Dollar Weakness and Fed Uncertainty in Focus

The dollar fell to a three-year low, providing a supportive backdrop for both metals. Yet, silver’s inability to rally in tandem with gold suggests traders are looking for confirmation from either technical breakouts or upcoming Fed commentary. The lack of forced liquidation in precious metals shows there’s still appetite for safety, but silver may need more than political volatility to attract sustained buying.

Market Outlook

Silver remains range-bound but technically vulnerable if support at $32.19 fails. For upside traction, a decisive breakout above $33.11 is essential. Until then, silver may continue to underperform gold, which remains the market’s preferred hedge in the current environment. Watch for further dollar weakness and Fed guidance as the next key catalysts.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.