Silver (XAG) Forecast: As Jobs Report Looms, Can $30.44 Pivot Steer Silver Higher?

Silver (XAG/USD) finished the week at $30.62, down 2.31% as the metal continued to struggle under bearish pressure. This marked a continuation of its broader November decline, with prices testing crucial support at $29.64, slightly below a major pivot at $30.44. Buyers have so far defended this level, but silver’s inability to break higher highlights persistent challenges.

Resistance at $32.26 remains intact, limiting any attempts at recovery. However, this price remains a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. The metal has struggled since its September high of $34.87, with sellers dominating amid a lack of bullish catalysts. A sustained move below $30.44 could trigger additional declines, although geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand could lend long-term support.

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield dropped significantly, ending the week at 4.18%, its lowest level in over a month. This decline traditionally bolsters silver by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next moves capped silver’s upward potential. With the FedWatch Tool showing a 64.7% chance of a December rate cut, the market remains divided on how upcoming economic data might influence yields and silver prices.

How Did the Dollar Index Impact Silver This Week?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached a high of 108.071 earlier this month before retreating to close at 105.782, down 1.59% for the week. While this pullback eased pressure on silver late in the week, the overall strength of the dollar throughout November weighed heavily on the metal. A strong dollar typically makes silver less attractive to international buyers, and Core PCE data underscored persistent inflation concerns that kept the dollar relatively elevated.

Will Geopolitical and Economic Events Shift Momentum?

Geopolitical developments, such as President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, add a layer of volatility to the outlook. Trade tensions historically favor silver, which benefits as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty. On the economic front, the upcoming U.S. jobs report is pivotal. With non-farm payrolls expected to rebound to 220,000, a weaker-than-expected figure could boost rate cut expectations, softening the dollar and potentially supporting silver. Conversely, stronger jobs data might add bearish pressure to the metal.

What’s Next for Silver Prices?

Silver’s short-term outlook remains cautious, as dollar strength and uncertain Federal Reserve policy continue to weigh on prices. A weaker dollar or further declines in Treasury yields could enable a recovery toward $32.26, and perhaps lead to an upside breakout. However, a break below $29.64 may open the door to deeper losses, targeting $29.00. This week’s U.S. jobs data will likely set the tone for December, with traders preparing for heightened market volatility.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.