Silver (XAG) Forecast: Break Above 50-Day Moving Average Signals Bullish Turn

Silver Breaks Key Resistance, Clears Path to Higher Targets

Silver is gaining momentum alongside gold, breaking above its 50-day moving average at $32.52—now acting as immediate support. Traders are watching additional backing at the retracement zone between $32.19 and $31.45. The move signals a shift in near-term sentiment, with bullish positioning now targeting the $34.59 to $34.87 range. Strength in gold and broader risk aversion are reinforcing the upside case for silver.

At 14:37 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $32.78, up $0.45 or +1.41%.

Gold Hits Record High as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Escalate

Gold prices surged to a fresh all-time high of $3,319.60, driven by growing demand for safe-haven assets. Markets reacted sharply after President Trump launched an investigation into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports—a direct response to China’s dominance in the sector. This follows a separate 24% tariff on Japanese goods, fueling concerns of a broader trade conflict.

With geopolitical stress rising, investors moved aggressively into gold and silver, both seen as hedges against policy instability and global uncertainty.

Weak Dollar Adds Tailwind to Precious Metals

The U.S. dollar extended its decline, now sitting near three-year lows, further boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated metals. A weaker greenback increases the purchasing power of foreign buyers and has historically supported inflows into silver during macro stress. Analysts note that the current combination of dollar softness, geopolitical risk, and central bank caution is keeping both metals well bid.

Bond Market Signals Defensive Positioning

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked slightly higher to 4.341% following stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Still, broader concerns remain. Speculation that China may be reducing its $760 billion U.S. Treasury holdings has added to investor caution. Any signs of bond market instability are likely to push more capital into metals, especially silver, which is catching up to gold’s lead.

Market Forecast: Silver to Extend Gains with Gold Support

With gold firmly above its pivot at $3,137.91 and silver breaking key resistance, the outlook for silver remains bullish. Strong safe-haven demand, technical momentum, and favorable macro drivers suggest buyers will stay active on pullbacks. Unless trade tensions ease or the dollar stages a sharp recovery, silver is expected to continue tracking higher toward the $34.59–$34.87 target zone.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.