Silver (XAG) Forecast: Bullish Silver Rally Gains Ground as Recession Fears Deepen

Is Silver Finally Ready to Break Out From Gold’s Shadow?

Silver gained 3.33% last week, closing at $34.13, as inflation risk, physical market tightness, and safe-haven flows came into alignment. While gold drove headlines with fresh all-time highs, silver is now catching up—supported by a bullish macro backdrop and strong bid interest from both investors and industrial users. The move through $34.24 confirms a bullish structure, and traders are now eyeing $35.40 and $37.51 as near-term targets.

Does Recession Risk Signal More Flow into Hard Assets?

Defensive positioning is picking up. A CNBC CFO Council survey showed 60% of corporate leaders now expect a U.S. recession, up from just 7% last quarter. Simultaneously, renewed tariff threats are fueling concerns about inflation and global growth. This mix—rate uncertainty, economic slowdown, and inflation risk—is driving flows into precious metals.

For silver, that means a bid not just as a monetary hedge, but as a leveraged play on rising volatility. Gold’s move through $3,000 has re-anchored market sentiment toward metals. The still-elevated gold-to-silver ratio above 90 is now encouraging capital rotation into silver as a relatively undervalued inflation hedge with room to catch up.

What Does Tight Physical Supply Tell Us About Price Action?

The physical market is flashing stress signals. Lease rates—especially the 1-month in London—remain historically high at 5.23%, down from February’s 6.5% spike but still suggesting tight supply. That tightness is confirmed by backwardation in the forward market and elevated premiums on high-quality bars.

Despite a 47% YTD increase in CME-approved stockpiles, the flow of silver into U.S. warehouses is being driven by arbitrage opportunities and front-loaded inventory buildup ahead of Trump’s proposed tariffs. This is not surplus—it’s defensive positioning, and it’s bullish.

Is the Fed Still on the Sidelines as Inflation Heats Up?

February’s core PCE rose 0.4%, slightly hotter than expected. While the Fed is signaling patience, tariff-driven inflation risk is starting to limit how dovish they can get. Traders are pulling back on aggressive rate cut bets, keeping real yields compressed and maintaining a strong backdrop for non-yielding assets like silver.

Fed commentary suggests no clear path for easing unless inflation cools further, reinforcing the current macro environment that supports silver strength.

Outlook: Silver Retains Bullish Structure Above Key Support

The bull trend remains intact. As long as silver holds above $32.66, with deeper support at $32.30 and $31.81, pullbacks are likely to be bought. Upside momentum remains in place, and a confirmed breakout above $35.40 opens the path toward $37.51.

Traders should remain long-biased while gold holds above $3,000 and inflation expectations remain elevated. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed or sharp drop in gold could cap silver temporarily, but the broader setup favors upside continuation.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.