Silver (XAG) Forecast: Bulls Eye 200-Day MA; Traders Await Breakout Above $30.90

Silver Holds Support, But Lacks Conviction Without Fresh Demand Drivers

Silver ticked higher Wednesday, but the rally continues to face headwinds as macro uncertainty weighs on industrial demand expectations. While gold presses into record territory on safe-haven flows, silver remains rangebound, caught between strong technical resistance and a hesitant outlook for physical demand—especially from China.

At 11:52 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $30.55, up $0.73 or +2.46%.

Key Technical Levels Define the Range

Silver continues to hold a firm base between $28.40 and $28.31. This support band has held multiple tests and is a key line in the sand for bulls. The near-term range caps out at $34.59, though immediate resistance sits at the 200-day moving average at $30.90.

Traders are closely watching the $31.45 pivot as a breakout trigger. A decisive move above this level could attract momentum buyers and set up a test of the 50-day moving average at $32.47. Until that happens, upside moves are likely to be sold into.

China Demand Risk Keeps Bulls on Edge

Silver’s status as an industrial metal leaves it more exposed to economic soft spots than gold. Traders remain on alert for signs of weakening demand from China, the world’s largest industrial metals consumer.

Recession risks tied to escalating global tariffs—triggered by new U.S. trade actions—compound the demand uncertainty. If Chinese factory activity slows or export figures disappoint, silver could see demand erosion even with broader safe-haven flows moving into metals.

Gold Rally Highlights the Sentiment Gap

Gold hit a record $3,167.57 last week and remains strong above the $3,000 mark. Supportive factors include a falling dollar, Treasury market instability, and renewed ETF inflows.

However, that bullish sentiment hasn’t fully spilled into silver. The market is treating gold as the primary hedge against policy risk and geopolitical stress, while silver lags without a clear fundamental driver beyond technical positioning.

Outlook: Needs Break Above $30.90 to Gain Traction

Silver remains in a neutral to mildly bullish setup, holding above critical support but still capped below the 200-day moving average at $30.90. A breakout above that level would be the first sign of upside momentum. If silver clears $30.90, traders will then focus on the $31.45 pivot as the next upside trigger.

A sustained move beyond that could open a path toward $32.47. Until then, without fresh buying—either from industrial users or speculative funds—the market is likely to stay rangebound. Price action may remain muted unless macro risk intensifies or Chinese demand improves unexpectedly.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.