Silver (XAG) Forecast: Can the Market Break $30.98 and Ride Gold’s Rally?

Silver Lags Behind Gold, Faces Demand Questions from China and Solar Sector

Silver prices edged higher on Wednesday but failed to match the strong momentum exhibited by gold in recent sessions. While silver remains supported by its bullish technical structure, broader market interest appears subdued, with competition from cryptocurrencies, equities, and gold potentially siphoning capital away from the metal.

At 13:19 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $30.84, Unchanged.

Technical Levels Support a Positive Outlook

Silver’s technical outlook remains strong, with the 50-day moving average at $30.40 and the 200-day moving average at $30.04 acting as key support levels. Prices have also remained above the pivot at $30.53, which keeps the short-, medium-, and long-term trends firmly upward. However, a lack of significant inflows indicates traders may be hesitant to commit, partly due to external macroeconomic uncertainties and other investment alternatives.

Uncertainty Over Industrial Demand and U.S. Policies

Fundamental headwinds are also capping silver’s upside potential. Concerns over the direction of industrial demand, particularly from China—the world’s largest silver consumer—are at the forefront of traders’ minds. Weak economic data out of China and lingering questions about Beijing’s growth trajectory have weighed on the outlook for silver’s use in electronics and manufacturing.

Additionally, silver’s ties to solar energy demand have introduced another layer of risk. With U.S. President Trump considering policies that could limit funding for renewable energy projects, such as solar, traders are wary of disruptions to one of silver’s fastest-growing demand sectors. According to Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, uncertainty around tariffs and inflationary impacts tied to Trump’s administration have become central to market sentiment for precious metals.

Gold Rallies on Dollar Weakness 

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)Gold, often viewed as silver’s counterpart, has outperformed with a breakout above $2,726.30, pushing prices closer to record highs at $2,790.17. A weaker U.S. dollar—currently near a two-week low—has further supported safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, gold has benefited more directly from its inflation-hedging appeal, which silver has struggled to fully capitalize on.

Market Forecast: Cautious Optimism for Silver

In the short term, silver’s outlook will hinge on external factors such as U.S. tariff announcements, China’s industrial recovery, and policy direction in the renewable energy sector.

While its technical setup remains bullish, silver needs stronger demand cues, particularly from China and the solar industry, to reignite momentum. Traders should watch for developments in U.S.-China trade relations and further indications of Federal Reserve policy, as these factors could drive renewed interest in the metal.

A sustained rally above $30.53 and a breakout over $30.98 may open the door for further gains, but for now, silver remains in gold’s shadow.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.