Silver (XAG) Forecast: PCE, Fed Caution, and Tariffs Fuel Bullish Silver Outlook

Silver Holds Near Highs as Traders Eye PCE Data, Tariff Impact, and Fed Signals

Silver prices are holding steady just below recent highs as markets brace for key U.S. inflation data and digest the growing implications of trade tariffs and central bank hesitation. The metal broke above $34.24 on Thursday, confirming its short-term bullish structure and setting the stage for a potential run at resistance levels near $34.87 and $35.40.

At 10:15 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $34.38, down $0.02 or -0.06%.

Silver Treads Water Ahead of Inflation Report

Friday’s trading has been quiet, with silver nearly flat as investors await the release of February’s PCE inflation reportFebruary’s PCE inflation report. Forecasts call for a 0.4% monthly increase in core inflation and a 2.7% year-over-year gain—figures strong enough to keep the Fed on hold and limit hopes for near-term rate cuts. However, traders are cautious, recognizing that today’s PCE data may underrepresent the inflation risks now brewing from newly announced U.S. tariffs​​.

Tariffs Add Inflation Tailwinds, Fed Remains Cautious

Silver’s outlook is increasingly tied to the inflation narrative playing out across the broader market. President Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans, set to take effect April 2, are widely expected to boost import prices. Economists estimate the inflation impact could exceed a full percentage point. While some Fed officials anticipate a temporary spike, others warn of longer-lasting pressure, adding uncertainty to rate policy decisions​​.

The Federal Reserve continues to face conflicting signals—moderate growth, firm consumer spending, and climbing inflation expectations. While recent CPI figures suggested cooling price growth, PCE forecasts imply the Fed has little room to ease. Fed speakers have described the business environment as stalled, with visibility clouded by policy risk and weak consumer sentiment​​.

Gold’s Surge Lends Support to Silver Bulls

Gold’s breakout to a new all-time high above $3,086 adds indirect support to silver through safe-haven demand. The two metals often trade in tandem during inflationary periods, and silver may benefit as a more affordable inflation hedge. As long as gold remains structurally bullish above $3,000, silver bulls are likely to stay engaged​.

Outlook: Silver Bull Trend Intact Above $32.66

The near-term trend remains constructive. Support rests at $32.66, with deeper levels at $32.30 and $31.81 marking key retracement zones. Holding above these levels keeps the technical bias upward. If inflation fears remain elevated and the Fed stays sidelined, silver has room to test $35.40 in the sessions ahead.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.