Solana Price Analysis: Market Rejects Key Resistance – Can SOL Drop to $100?

SOL consolidated for a while during the afternoon yesterday but dropped sharply after the Asian session started today, moving from around $138 per token to $131 at the time of writing. Trading volumes have gone up by 4% in the past day to $3.4 billion.

This latest weakness has evaporated most of Solana’s recent gains as the market continues to take a breather from the rally that started on March 11.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged have temporarily appeased investors’ concerns. However, Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts yesterday may have spooked the market once again.

Investors fear that these hostile policies could result in higher inflation and could deter the Federal Reserve from lowering rates in the near term. This would dramatically impact the valuation of risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have dropped by 2.1% and 6.5% respectively in the past 24 hours as well.

Since the year started, both Solana daily active addresses and daily transactions have dropped sharply as meme coins – one of the most relevant sources of transaction volumes for the network – and DeFi applications have experienced a drop in their demand.

Market Rejects Move Above 50% Fibonacci

Looking at the daily chart, the latest price action rejected a move above the $146.5 level. This rejection occurred as bulls failed to push the price above the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level.

This rejection is a sell signal for SOL as a retracement at this point indicates the downtrend’s continuation.

Momentum indicators have not yet confirmed a bearish outlook but are almost there. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just tagged the signal line while the MACD’s histogram has made its third consecutive lower reading (light green bar). This indicates that positive momentum is fading.

If a sell signal is confirmed, the first target for SOL could be set at $110 – its nearest lower low. However, text-book Fibonacci retracements like this typically indicate that the price will drop to a lower level than it did the last time.

This means that downside risks are high at this point for SOL and a drop to the $100 level is not entirely off the table.

Market sentiment favors a bearish outlook as well as the Fear and Greed Index stands at 33. Although the sentiment gauge has bounced from record lows, at its current levels is still indicating that investors are in Fear mode.

SOL Bounces Off Key Support at Lower Timeframes

Moving to the hourly chart, SOL is retesting a key support during the Asian session at $130 per token. The price seems to be bouncing off this level for the time being as momentum indicators appear to be recovering.

The MACD’s histogram has been making lower lows in the past few hours while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems poised to tag the signal line from below.

Since the daily chart is bearish, this could be an intraday retracement. Short-sellers have the higher odds of obtaining a favorable outcome at this point. Hence, they could open a short position if the price retraces after tagging the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci.

This trade would offer a high risk-reward ratio ranging from 2.6 to 3 depending on where the exit price is set within the chart’s take-profit area.