Solana Price Forecast: SOL Stays Above Key Support – Is a Bullish Cycle Starting?

On Monday, the price recovered from a session low of $96 to close near $107 while Trump’s decision to halt the implementation of higher tariffs on dozens of countries yesterday propelled SOL to $119.

So far today, the price has retreated by 4% as the market waits for March’s inflation report in the United States.

The inflation rate came in at 2.4% or 20 basis points below analysts’ consensus estimate for the period. In normal conditions, this would have resulted in a rally for cryptos but Trump’s tariffs are still looming in the backdrop and they are still a cause of concern for market participants.

FART Craze Drives DEX Trading Volumes Higher

Trading volumes within the Solana decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem seem to be picking up their pace again as a run-rate of its first 9 days currently results in a 23.5% increase compared to March’s figure.

This uptick in trading activity could be the result of a slight recovery in the meme coin space as Solana-based tokens like Fartcoin (FART) and SPX6900 (SPX) have done well during the downturn.

FART is an odd success story in a heavily depressed market as this meme coin has seen its price nearly double in the past week while most digital assets faced double-digit drops.

Trading volumes for FART in the past 24 hours have increased by 56% to nearly $432 million and most of the spot volume has been captured by Solana-based DEXs like Orca and Raydium through the FART/SOL pair.

SOL Could Drop to $70

Moving to the daily chart, SOL bounced off a key support this week while momentum indicators have improved slightly.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sent a buy signal as it crossed over the signal line yesterday while the MACD’s histogram shows that negative has decelerated.

However, SOL is still on a downtrend until otherwise confirmed. The descending triangle shown in the chart is a bearish price pattern that shows significant selling pressure at any price above the support level.

As the price heads lower and comes closer and closer to this area, the selling pressure may increase unless market conditions change favorably and manage to reverse the downtrend.

This bearish bias is consistent with the overall macro outlook, which is unfavorable, and the market’s cautious tone and pessimistic sentiment.

If SOL breaks below $100 again, this would risk a 22% decline to the $78 area and possibly lower, to around $70, if Trump’s trade with China starts to have negative consequences for the U.S. economy.

Trading volumes were quite high around the $100 level, which emphasizes that there is a huge load of buy orders at that level. If sellers try to break below this area again, some of that buying power may have already been exhausted and this could favor a bearish breakout.

In the lower time frames, the price broke above an ascending triangle yesterday after Trump announced the 90-day pause but sellers have taken control of the price action to fill the supply imbalance.

Following the CPI report, the price action has turned bearish ahead of the beginning of the American session. For now, SOL’s ascending triangle ceiling has now become a floor. A break below this area could result in further weakness during the rest of the day.

In any case, the pullback is still within the normal ranges of a Fibonacci retracement. This favors a bullish short-term outlook as long as the 61.8% level holds if the decline accelerates at some point.