Tariff Uncertainty, Jobs Data, and Retail Earnings Drive US Stock Market Forecast This Week

Tariff Policy in Focus as Markets Brace for Packed Week of Data and Earnings

Traders will be closely tracking a fresh round of U.S. tariff announcements and implementation this week, with market attention shifting away from the labor market and toward Washington’s evolving trade stance. President Trump is expected to outline reciprocal tariff policies on Wednesday, April 2, followed by the activation of previously announced tariffs early Thursday. These developments come as traders assess the broader impact on supply chains, corporate margins, and inflation expectations.

Tariff Moves Could Add Pressure Ahead of Trade Deficit Update

With the White House pressing forward on trade policy, Thursday’s release of the U.S. trade deficit will be viewed in the context of looming import levies. Recent data showed a widening trade gap, and markets have responded with caution as tariff risks grow. The potential for retaliatory measures and rising input costs has introduced new volatility across equities, particularly in manufacturing and consumer goods sectors. Factory orders data on Wednesday and PMI figures for both manufacturing and services this week will offer additional signals on how tariff expectations are feeding into supply-side conditions.

Labor Market Strength Remains a Key Support

Despite trade headwinds, labor market strength continues to provide a base case for economic resilience. Friday’s March jobs report is expected to show a gain of 185,000 nonfarm payrolls, above consensus estimates. Job openings on Tuesday and Wednesday’s ADP private-sector payrolls will set the tone ahead of the official data. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday are also in focus. While the February jobs report missed expectations, sustained hiring momentum and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate give the Federal Reserve cover to keep rates steady, as reflected in futures markets.

Corporate Earnings Spotlight Consumer Health and Margin Risks

Several key earnings releases this week could reveal how tariffs and demand trends are affecting consumer-facing sectors. On Thursday, Conagra (CAG) and Lamb Weston (LW) will report amid ongoing supply chain constraints and activist pressure. Retailers PVH (Monday) and Guess (Thursday) are expected to comment on consumer spending and international trade exposure. RH (Wednesday) will provide insight into higher-end discretionary demand as the housing market remains soft. Margin outlooks and forward guidance will be critical for assessing tariff-related risks.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bearish with Trade Risks Front and Center

While labor market strength and stable Fed policy offer near-term support, the market faces rising downside risk from escalating tariff actions. Investors will be watching closely for signs of corporate margin compression, weak factory activity, or deteriorating trade conditions. Unless earnings and economic data broadly surprise to the upside, the outlook leans bearish for the week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.