The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Tesla Results and Fed Speeches Today

U.S. Stock Market Pre-Market Outlook

Futures rebound modestly after steep sell-off, all eyes on Fed rhetoric and Tesla earnings

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a partial rebound following sharp losses in the prior session. Dow futures rose 149 points (+0.39%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.5% each. Monday marked the fourth consecutive loss for the Dow and Nasdaq, with the Dow plunging over 970 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each falling more than 2%.

This week’s central theme remains political pressure on the Federal Reserve. Renewed attacks from former President Trump, including threats of termination against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have injected a fresh layer of uncertainty into markets. Investors are increasingly concerned about the Fed’s independence as rate cut expectations clash with fiscal and geopolitical concerns.

Key Economic Releases

• 10:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

Traders will be monitoring the Richmond Fed Index for fresh insight into regional manufacturing activity, particularly given heightened sensitivity around economic softening and Fed policy responses.

Notable Earnings

• Lockheed Martin (pre-market): Traders will focus on defense spending commentary amid geopolitical tensions.

• Tesla (after-market): Consensus expects Q1 revenue of $21.24B and EPS of $0.40. Analysts are focused on margin trends, China demand, and the impact of Trump’s tariff plan. Commentary on Full Self-Driving progress and Musk’s leadership will be heavily scrutinized.

Tesla stock dropped nearly 6% ahead of earnings and is down 44% year-to-date. Backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political activity and slowing deliveries have raised concerns about long-term demand. Investors expect updates on automation tech and international strategy during the live company update.

Central Bank Activity

A full slate of Fed speakers is scheduled:

• 13:30 GMT – Philly Fed President Patrick Harker
• 14:00 GMT – Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
• 14:30 GMT – Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

Markets are on alert for any direct response to Trump’s statements or clarification on the Fed’s policy stance. Any commentary suggesting a deviation from current rate policy could trigger immediate volatility.

Pre-Opening Outlook

Market sentiment remains fragile with U.S. political risks, Fed independence concerns, and Tesla’s post-earnings reaction all in focus. Traders should brace for potential volatility from earnings headlines and Fedspeak. With indexes off recent highs and down sharply for April, technical bounces are possible, but sustained upside may be limited without clearer macro direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.