US Dollar Forecast: Falls to 3-Year Low as Trade Wars Undermine Confidence

Trade Policy and Political Risks Challenge Dollar’s Global Role

For decades, the U.S. dollar has reigned supreme as the world’s most important currency, serving as both a global reserve asset and a safe haven during times of market turbulence. However, recent developments suggest this long-standing pillar of the global financial system may be showing signs of vulnerability.

The combination of aggressive trade policies, political pressure on monetary authorities, and shifting market dynamics is raising serious questions about the dollar’s future role in the international financial order.

At 12:28 GMT, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading 98.188, down -1.216 or -1.22%.

Technically, the trend is decisively lower with the next downside target a multi-year low at 97.685. This is another potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the focuse on 95.137.

Near-term resistance is 99.578 to 100.000.

Dollar Weakness Accelerates Amid Global Uncertainty

The greenback has experienced a troubling decline in recent months, falling to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. This 9% drop from its January peak represents more than a routine fluctuation – it signals growing international concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy and its financial stewardship.

The weakness comes at a time when traditional safe-haven alternatives are gaining strength. The Swiss franc has climbed to its strongest level in 14 years, while the Japanese yen and euro have also attracted significant capital flows. This divergence from historical patterns suggests a fundamental reassessment of the dollar’s reliability.

“The market clearly now has doubts,” noted Steve Englander, head of global G-10 foreign-exchange research at Standard Chartered, highlighting a breakdown in the dollar’s traditional market correlations that began following the announcement of new tariffs.

Trade Tensions Undermine Confidence

President Trump’s aggressive approach to trade policy, particularly his administration’s broad tariffs and escalating tensions with China, has sent shockwaves through global markets. The April tariff announcement, described by some analysts as “liberation day,” marked a turning point in international perceptions of U.S. economic leadership.

These protectionist measures have roiled markets worldwide and clouded economic outlooks, prompting investors to withdraw from U.S. assets. China’s warning against countries striking broader economic deals with the U.S. at its expense further complicates the picture, raising the specter of a more fragmented global trading system.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has himself warned about the economic risks posed by these tariffs, describing a scenario where the U.S. could face the difficult challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support. “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell cautioned in remarks to the Economic Club of Chicago.

Reserve Currency Status Under Threat

Perhaps most concerning for long-term U.S. economic interests is the growing uncertainty surrounding the dollar’s status as the de facto global reserve currency. While this shift won’t happen overnight due to powerful network effects, signs of erosion are becoming increasingly visible.

Data from the International Monetary Fund shows the dollar’s share of global central bank reserves has been declining since the late 1990s. Although it remains dominant in global trade – involved in nearly half of all international transactions according to SWIFT – the recent market behavior suggests a potential acceleration of this longer-term trend.

“Now there’s this perception that not only have the motivations changed, but the methodologies have changed,” explained Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. “It speaks to a U.S. that is no longer the underwriter of its own system. Instead, the U.S. is going about disassembling that system in a non-diplomatic and abrupt way.”

Political Interference in Monetary Policy

Adding to market concerns is the unprecedented level of political pressure being applied to the Federal Reserve. President Trump’s public criticism of Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster has raised questions about central bank independence, a cornerstone of economic stability.

“If we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too,” Trump stated bluntly during a recent press conference, directly challenging the Fed’s policy decisions.

This political interference comes at a particularly sensitive time, as the Fed attempts to navigate complex economic crosscurrents. The resulting uncertainty has contributed to market volatility and further eroded confidence in the dollar as a predictable store of value.

Shifting Market Correlations and Safe Haven Status

For decades, financial markets operated with certain reliable patterns – during times of stress, investors would flock to the dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, the Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. These correlations provided a degree of predictability that helped market participants manage risk.

Recent market data reveals a troubling breakdown in these longstanding relationships. While traditional flight-to-safety patterns would typically boost the dollar during periods of uncertainty, we’re now seeing investors pursue alternative safe havens while simultaneously moving away from dollar-denominated assets.

The currency market, with its massive $7.5 trillion in daily turnover (as of 2022), offers the liquidity essential for swift repositioning during times of stress. According to MarketWatch, the recent pullback from the U.S. dollar in this vital segment of global finance could trigger wide-ranging effects across cross-border capital flows and investment strategies.

Looking Ahead: Implications and Potential Consequences

If these trends continue, the consequences could extend far beyond currency markets. A diminished role for the dollar would likely lead to higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government and American consumers. It could also reduce Washington’s geopolitical leverage and complicate international trade.

“There could be some tailwinds for the dollar here,” noted Atul Bhatia, a fixed-income portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management, suggesting a possible near-term bounce. “But longer term, we think that folks are going to be looking toward their own markets and their own regions.”

The significant foreign holdings of U.S. assets mean that any shift in dollar sentiment could have profound effects on Wall Street and Main Street savers alike. Treasury yields have already responded to these concerns, with the benchmark 10-year note recently rising 6 basis points to 4.391%.

While the dollar’s global dominance isn’t likely to disappear entirely in the immediate future, the convergence of trade wars, political interference in monetary policy, and shifting market correlations presents a serious challenge to its long-term status. How policymakers respond to these pressures in the coming months could determine whether this represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a more fundamental realignment in the global financial order.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.