China's July imports sank 12.4% as exports dropped 14.5%, driving the US dollar index (DXY) up about 0.5%.
The U.S. dollar surged in comparison to major global currencies after dismal trade data from China and declining European demand, while the spotlight is set on the U.S.’s upcoming inflation data for a potential market shake-up.
A worrisome decline was observed in China’s July trade data with imports plunging by 12.4% year-on-year and exports falling by 14.5%. This spells another indication of China’s struggling economic rebound and a subdued worldwide demand. The yuan reacted swiftly, with the offshore yuan hitting a 2.5-week low, and the onshore yuan dropping to a two-week nadir.
In contrast, the U.S. trade deficit reduced by 4.1% to $65.5 billion in June, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic demand. This contraction was influenced by the decline of goods and services imports to their lowest since November 2021. The economy exhibited a growth of 2.4% annually in the last quarter, despite trade playing a minimal role.
With the greenback shining, other currencies faced downturns. The dollar index lifted by 0.5% to 102.59, moving past Friday’s tepid U.S. jobs report. In Europe, the sterling and euro both depreciated by 0.5% against the dollar. The U.S. dollar also marked a 0.6% increase against the yen. Interestingly, Japan saw a continuous drop in real wages for the 15th month, presenting a conundrum for the Bank of Japan.
All eyes are set on the forthcoming U.S. inflation data. Predictions suggest a 4.8% annual rise in core consumer prices for July. This crucial data may sway the market either way, rendering it essential for sentiments preceding Federal Reserve meetings in September and October.
Amid fluctuating global trade dynamics, the U.S. dollar stands robust. However, with upcoming pivotal data, traders and markets remain on their toes, eager to discern future economic trajectories.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.