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US Dollar Index News: DXY Soars Amid China’s Trade Woes, Euro Weakness

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Aug 8, 2023, 13:44 GMT+00:00

China's July imports sank 12.4% as exports dropped 14.5%, driving the US dollar index (DXY) up about 0.5%.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

In this article:

Highlights

  • China’s July trade data signals economic issues.
  • U.S. trade deficit narrows; dollar strengthens.
  • U.S. inflation data crucial for future sentiments.

Overview

The U.S. dollar surged in comparison to major global currencies after dismal trade data from China and declining European demand, while the spotlight is set on the U.S.’s upcoming inflation data for a potential market shake-up.

China’s Dim Trade Figures

A worrisome decline was observed in China’s July trade data with imports plunging by 12.4% year-on-year and exports falling by 14.5%. This spells another indication of China’s struggling economic rebound and a subdued worldwide demand. The yuan reacted swiftly, with the offshore yuan hitting a 2.5-week low, and the onshore yuan dropping to a two-week nadir.

US Trade Landscape

In contrast, the U.S. trade deficit reduced by 4.1% to $65.5 billion in June, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic demand. This contraction was influenced by the decline of goods and services imports to their lowest since November 2021. The economy exhibited a growth of 2.4% annually in the last quarter, despite trade playing a minimal role.

Currency Dynamics

With the greenback shining, other currencies faced downturns. The dollar index lifted by 0.5% to 102.59, moving past Friday’s tepid U.S. jobs report. In Europe, the sterling and euro both depreciated by 0.5% against the dollar. The U.S. dollar also marked a 0.6% increase against the yen. Interestingly, Japan saw a continuous drop in real wages for the 15th month, presenting a conundrum for the Bank of Japan.

Upcoming Market Influencers

All eyes are set on the forthcoming U.S. inflation data. Predictions suggest a 4.8% annual rise in core consumer prices for July. This crucial data may sway the market either way, rendering it essential for sentiments preceding Federal Reserve meetings in September and October.

Short-term Outlook:  Robust

Amid fluctuating global trade dynamics, the U.S. dollar stands robust. However, with upcoming pivotal data, traders and markets remain on their toes, eager to discern future economic trajectories.

Technical Analysis

4-Hour US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently positioned at 102.725, showing an increment from its prior 4-hour price of 102.594. Its location between the 50-4H moving average of 102.130 and the 200-4H moving average of 101.830 suggests it has recently breached the shorter-term average, indicating bullish momentum. The 14-4H RSI at 63.16 is above the midpoint of 50, further underscoring this momentum without reaching overbought territory.
DXY’s current price resides above the main support region of 100.016 to 99.630 but hasn’t touched the main resistance span of 103.280 to 103.424. Considering these metrics, the market sentiment for DXY appears bullish.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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