US Dollar Price Forecast: Consolidates as ISM, Payrolls Loom – GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. dollar enters the first week of April with a series of high-impact economic reports ahead that may shift monetary policy expectations. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Economists expect 139K new jobs, a decline from 151K in February, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% and wage growth steady at 0.3% m/m.

Labor market data will follow Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast to fall to 49.6, and Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change, expected at 118K, up from 77K previously. Slower employment or manufacturing growth would likely increase pressure on the Fed to move forward with rate cuts.

On Thursday, the market will assess weekly jobless claims, projected at 227K, and two PMI services reports. Friday also brings public comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC Member Waller, which could influence the dollar’s direction if they signal policy adjustments.

Technically, the dollar index remains below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. A weak NFP print or soft ISM data could push DXY toward lower support levels.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below its rising channel and is now trading under the 50 EMA ($104.14), signaling a shift in short-term momentum. DXY failed to hold above the key $104.20 pivot and is now flirting with immediate support at $103.83.

The rejection near $104.67 and the inability to reclaim the trend channel hint at growing bearish sentiment. With the 200 EMA still well above at $105.07, any upside recovery remains capped unless bulls reclaim $104.20.

A close below $103.83 could accelerate the decline toward $103.53 and $103.19. The structure has shifted from bullish to neutral-to-bearish, and traders will want to watch for further weakness below the support band.

DXY has broken below its rising channel and 50 EMA. A close below $103.83 could lead to further weakness. Bias leans bearish unless $104.20 is reclaimed.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound remains stuck in a sideways chop, trading just below its 50 EMA at $1.2933. Despite several attempts, GBP/USD has failed to break above the descending trendline resistance near $1.3014, suggesting upside momentum is capped. Price continues to oscillate between $1.2903 support and $1.2973 resistance, forming a compression zone that may lead to a breakout.

The pair is now hovering at a key inflection point: holding above $1.2903 could invite buyers back into the picture, while a break below that level may expose $1.2866. With the 200 EMA still trending higher at $1.2803, the broader bias remains cautiously bullish—but short-term momentum is lacking.

A breakout above $1.2973 could target $1.3014 next, while sellers may look to capitalize on any weakness below $1.2903. GBP/USD is range-bound. A break above $1.2973 or below $1.2903 will likely dictate the next directional move.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The euro has punched through the upper boundary of its descending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal after days of subdued price action. EUR/USD is trading at $1.0821, above both the 50 EMA ($1.0812) and the key pivot level at $1.0808—suggesting bullish momentum is building.

The clean breakout, paired with a sharp bullish candle, confirms buyer interest. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.0857; a break above that could target $1.0912. On the downside, $1.0808 now flips to support, followed by $1.0734 if momentum fades.

The rejection of the downtrend channel and reclaimed moving averages tilt the bias upward in the short term. Traders should watch for a confirmation candle and sustained hold above $1.0808 to validate the breakout. EUR/USD has broken its descending channel and reclaimed key levels. Bullish above $1.0808, with $1.0857 in focus as the next test.