US Dollar Price Forecast: Weak PMIs Weigh on Sentiment; Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar at 213K Claims, Gold Steady

The US Dollar showed resilience on Thursday, supported by lower-than-expected Unemployment Claims at 213K versus the forecast of 220K. However, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index disappointed, falling to -5.5 against an expected 7.4. Existing Home Sales beat expectations at 3.96M, showing housing sector stability.

Gold remained steady, hovering near $2,688, as markets await Friday’s Flash PMIs and revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data. Traders are watching inflation expectations and Fed commentary for clues on rate policy.

Gold’s bullish momentum could accelerate if inflation risks persist, while a stronger dollar may cap gains in the short term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.94, down 0.08%, as it consolidates just above the pivot point at $106.81. Immediate resistance sits at $107.18, with further levels at $107.46 and $107.70, while support is found at $106.51 and $106.12.

The index remains above its 50-day EMA at $106.64 and the 200-day EMA at $105.67, reinforcing a bullish bias.

A symmetrical triangle breakout indicates potential buying momentum, but the pivot point remains key—holding above $106.81 suggests further upside toward $107.18, while a break below could signal a sharp reversal.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,688.53, up 0.68%, maintaining its upward channel. Immediate resistance levels are $2,708.96 and $2,726.69, with support at $2,649.98.

Prices remain above the 50-day EMA at $2,644.50 and the 200-day EMA at $2,650.97, signaling bullish momentum.

The pivot point at $2,688.79 is key; holding above supports further gains, while a break below may trigger selling pressure.

Sterling Dips on Weak Data: Retail Sales -0.7%, Confidence at -18

The British Pound faced pressure as weak economic data weighed on sentiment. Public Sector Net Borrowing rose to £17.4B, above the forecast of £13.0B, indicating increased fiscal strain.

Retail Sales fell -0.7% m/m, worse than the forecasted -0.3%, while GfK Consumer Confidence remained weak at -18.

Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 50.0, showing marginal growth, while Services PMI dipped to 51.9 from 52.0. Markets await MPC commentary for further guidance.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.25764, down 0.10%, as the pair faces selling pressure following a symmetrical triangle breakout. The pivot point at $1.25954 serves as a critical threshold; staying below this level reinforces the bearish outlook, while a break above could shift momentum toward $1.26311 and beyond.

Immediate support is found at $1.25500, with deeper levels at $1.25120 and $1.24755. The pair trades below its 50-day EMA at $1.26414 and the 200-day EMA at $1.27747, signaling a bearish bias.

The overall structure suggests a cautious stance, with sellers maintaining control unless buyers reclaim the pivot. Watch for a decisive move to break $1.25954, as it could define the short-term trajectory for GBP/USD.

Euro Struggles: GDP at 0.1%, PMIs Disappoint Below Forecasts

The Euro faced headwinds as German GDP growth slowed to 0.1% q/q, below the expected 0.2%. French Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.2, below the 44.6 forecast, while Services PMI dipped to 45.7 from an expected 49.1.

Similarly, German Services PMI dropped to 49.4, missing the 51.6 forecast. Manufacturing PMIs showed stagnation, indicating ongoing economic challenges.

Markets are closely watching the ECB’s next moves and speeches from President Lagarde and Buba President Nagel.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.04903, up 0.16%, as the pair consolidates near key support levels. Immediate resistance is at $1.05556, with further targets at $1.06082 and $1.06439, while immediate support lies at $1.04621, followed by $1.04249. The pivot point at $1.05103 is critical, with a move above it potentially shifting momentum toward bullish territory.

The pair remains below the 50-day EMA at $1.05356 and the 200-day EMA at $1.06510, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

A symmetrical triangle breakout suggests continued selling pressure, though the RSI indicates neutral momentum. A sustained break below $1.04621 could target deeper declines, while a recovery above $1.05103 would challenge the bearish bias, making $1.05556 the next test level.