USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Bounce Around The Yen

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has been back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday, as we are all over the place after the PCE numbers came out just a little cooler than anticipated. And this, of course, has people running for the exits and looking for the Federal Reserve to suddenly start cutting rates. It’s not going to happen, at least not easily. So we need to be cognizant of the fact that this might be a little bit nonsensical.

That being said, I think this is a situation where you still like the idea of buying dips, but you have to hopefully see the 50 day EMA hold right around the 155 yen level. The 155 yen level is an area that people will be paying attention to for value perhaps even defining the trend a little bit. We are in the midst of the candlestick where the Japanese cut the market in half, basically by just coming in and intervening, buying a ton of yen. But now we are doing everything we can to try to take that out.

Regardless, this is a market that I think if we can get above the 160 yen level, we really could start to do some real damage, more of a buy and hold type of scenario. If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then we could go down to the 152 yen level, which was a previous resistance barrier that a lot of traders will be paying close attention to. In general, this is a market that I’m still positive of, and you still have a major interest rate differential to back up your position. So I’m still a holder. I still like the idea of going long.

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