The greenback continues to see a bit of support in the USD/JPY pair, as we see a bit of stabilization at this point in time. This pair is of course the epicenter of the carry trade, and therefore people will continue to watch this market.
The US dollar has rallied just a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we can continue to see a lot of choppy volatility. At this point, the question is going to be whether or not the market can turn around enough to recapture the move higher. For me, the most obvious level would be the 150 level, which breaking above that, the market could really start to take off. In that environment, it is likely that the other JPY-related pairs will follow as the Yen tends to move in the same direction simultaneously.
All things being equal though, I think in the short term, we’re probably looking at a lot of back and forth, but I would also pay close attention to the 144 yen level because that is your floor. There is a lot of noise out there when it comes to the idea of risk appetite and the carry trade. So, I think we’re in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment.
You do get paid at the end of every day, and I think that’s part of what’s keeping this market alive but whether or not it truly takes off remains to be seen. I think the next couple of weeks will be crucial, and really at this point in time, it is worth noting that a lot of that nasty volatility has disappeared, so that’s the first signs of trying to turn things around and go positive again.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.