USD/JPY Weekly Forecast – US Dollar Pulls Back to Find Buyers Again

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 09.10.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen significantly during the course of the trading week to test the ¥147.80 level, or where the market had previously seen resistance. By pulling back the way we have, we have turned around to show signs of life. Ultimately, we are testing the top of the overall market, and therefore we have to ask a lot of questions about what’s going on right now. The ¥150 level is an area where you could see a little bit of resistance, and if we can break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥152 level.

Ultimately, if we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then the market could go looking to the ¥146 level, maybe even lower than that, but I don’t see that happening easily. After all, the Bank of Japan has a very loose monetary policy going on right now, and therefore it’s likely that we will see a lot of negativity around the Japanese yen, and that’s fully expressed on this chart.

The shape of the candlestick is a bit of a hammer, so the question now is whether or not this is truly a hammer that will continue to see upward pressure, or if it ends up turning into a “hanging man”, where the market breaks down below the bottom of the candlestick and kicks off quite a bit of selling pressure. We will have to see, but right now there’s nothing in the bond market that suggests that the Federal Reserve is going to suddenly loosen monetary policy, considering that the rates are almost at the absolutized.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.