XRP Bears Remain in Control with SEC v Ripple Uncertainty Influencing

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP joined the broader crypto market in another bearish session, falling by 1.92% to end the day at $0.37834.
• A lack of progress in the SEC v Ripple case left XRP in the hands of the Fed, the US economic calendar, and the NASDAQ.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.35.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 1.92%. Following a 2.43% from Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.37834. XRP ended the day at sub-$0.38 for the first time since November 22 and fell short of $0.39 for the first time in three sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early morning high of $0.38629. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3956, XRP slid to a late afternoon low of $0.37391. XRP briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3757 before ending the day at $0.37834.

US Economic Indicators and the NASDAQ Leave XRP in the Red

Economic indicators from China and the US weighed on investor sentiment throughout the session.

Following the hawkish Fed rate hike on Wednesday, disappointing retail sales and industrial production figures from China and a fall in US consumer spending reignited recession fears, leaving riskier assets in negative territory.

There were no material updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to distract investors from the US economic calendar and regulatory chatter from the US.

On Thursday, Amicus Curiae Paradigm Operations LP attorney Rodrigo Seira filed a motion to appear Pro Hac Vice on behalf of his client.

Following many Amicus Brief filings in favor of Ripple and the defendants, the motion had no XRP impact, with investors waiting for the next Court date of December 22. On December 22, parties must file omnibus motions to seal all materials relating to the summary judgment motions and proposed redactions to such materials.

However, investors are waiting for a Court ruling on the Summary Judgment Reply Briefs. Hopes of a settlement appear to be waning, with XRP on a downward trend since late November.

It is unclear whether the collapse of FTX and the increased scrutiny from regulators and US lawmakers will influence the Court ruling and, ultimately, the outcome.

Rumors of a conclusion to the case by Thursday also turned out to be just rumors. Earlier in the week, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson talked about rumors of a Thursday end to the SEC v Ripple case. The source was unknown.

Today, US economic indicators and the NASDAQ could provide further direction late in the session. However, investor sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case and rulings and filings will remain the key driver.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.14% to $0.37782. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.37691 before rising to a high of $0.37900.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.3957 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3851 and the Thursday high of $0.38629. A return to $0.3850 would signal a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3919. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4043.

Failure to move through the pivot would give the bears a run at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3727. However, barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.37 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3671. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3548.

Barring updates from the SEC v Ripple case and a crypto exchange event, XRP will likely sit in the hands of the US economic calendar.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.38501. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through the 50-day ($0.38501) and R1 ($0.38510) would support a breakout from the 100-day ($0.38702) EMA to bring R2 ($0.3919) into play. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38501) would leave XRP under pressure.