On Wednesday, December 11, the Senate Banking Committee’s planned vote on SEC Commissioner Carline Crenshaw’s renomination encountered unexpected delays.
Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that procedural issues led to the vote’s cancellation, stating,
“Because Crenshaw’s vote was pushed to the afternoon, it clashed with a Senate procedural rule that says no Senate committee or subcommittee (except the Committees on Appropriations and Budget and their subcommittees) can meet after the Senate has been in session for two hours or past 2:00 p.m. EST. “
Terrett explained further that the only other option was for the Senate to agree to a ‘unanimous consent waiver.’ This would allow Committee members to meet outside of the required window. However, Terrett reported that Republicans, at the request of Senator Tim Scott, blocked the waiver.
This development leaves Commissioner Crenshaw with merely seven days to navigate committee and full Senate approval.
The stakes are high. If Crenshaw is not renominated before Congress adjourns, President-elect Trump could replace her with a Republican nominee.
Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty underscored the significance of the vote to renominate Crenshaw, saying,
“Commissioner Crenshaw is, in some ways, even more rogue than Gensler. At least Gensler backed down after a Court said blocking BTC spot ETFs was ‘arbitrary and capricious.’ Crenshaw, however, continued to vote “no,” insisting that the Court got it wrong in her dissent. Unelected bureaucrats are not above the law.”
President-elect Trump nominated former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair. The crypto community views Atkins as crypto-friendly and likely to push Trump’s pro-crypto agenda.
However, Atkins would replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler on January 20, days after the SEC must file its appeal-related opening brief in the Ripple case. Alongside Chair Gensler is Democrat SEC Commissioner Jaime Lizarraga, who announced his resignation, departing the SEC on January 17.
If Crenshaw is renominated, she would be the sole Democrat with voting powers in crypto-related matters. Crenshaw could influence the SEC’s path in the Ripple case.
Internal SEC rules mandate that an agency vote, not the Chair alone, determines the appeal’s continuation or withdrawal. This means Paul Atkins cannot unilaterally withdraw the appeal if Chair Gensler files the opening brief before departing.
The potential for a Republican-dominated SEC should mean the agency could vote to withdraw the appeal. However, there will be some uncertainty if Crenshaw is renominated, potentially testing XRP demand.
On Wednesday, December 11, XRP gained 0.91%, following Tuesday’s 7.00% rally, closing at $2.3946. Significantly, XRP underperformed the broader crypto market, which surged by 4.85%, taking the total market cap to $3.520 trillion.
While the crypto market remains optimistic about the SEC withdrawing its Ripple appeal, uncertainty surrounding Crenshaw’s renomination limited Wednesday’s gains.
Near-term price trends will likely remain hinged on SEC plans to appeal. XRP could face intense selling pressure if the SEC pursues the appeal, potentially dragging the token toward $1. Conversely, a withdrawal may drive XRP past its January 2018 all-time high of $3.5505.
The broader crypto market, Coinbase (COIN) and Binance would be other beneficiaries of an appeal.
A withdrawal would set the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling as a crucial legal precedent, weakening the SEC’s cases against crypto exchanges. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that Programmatic Sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. This means that XRP sales on exchanges do not violate US securities laws.
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Bitcoin (BTC) remained the driving force behind the broader crypto market on Wednesday. The supply-demand balance tilted in BTC’s favor as the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to nine days on Tuesday, December 10. Tuesday’s inflows fueled BTC demand early in the Wednesday session.
On Wednesday, December 11, the BTC-spot ETF market will likely extend its net inflow streak to ten sessions, the longest since July’s 12-day streak. According to Farside Investors:
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $223.1 million on Wednesday.
Speculation about the Trump administration including BTC as a US strategic reserve asset (SBR) remained the key driver for BTC-spot ETF flow trends. If the administration included BTC as a strategic reserve asset, the US government would become a BTC HODLER, mitigating oversupply risk. The US government has a hefty 198,109 BTC stockpile, equivalent to $19.94 billion.
On Wednesday, December 11, BTC rallied 4.11%, reversing a 0.54% loss from Tuesday, closing at $100,901. Significantly, BTC held onto the $100k handle for only the second time.
Near-term BTC price trends will depend on US BTC-spot ETF market flows, Fed rate cut bets, and US government BTC movements. On Wednesday, in line with expectations, US inflation data solidified expectations for a December Fed rate cut, boosting BTC demand.
Investors should also track the US government’s crypto transfers. A sizeable US government BTC transfer could trigger oversupply risk, potentially dragging BTC below $95,000.
Both XRP and Bitcoin are at pivotal junctures. From regulatory rulings to ETF inflows, market dynamics remain uncertain. Stay updated here with our latest insights into crypto markets and regulatory developments.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.