XRP News Today: SEC Appeal Looms – Ripple Case Countdown; BTC at Sub-$95k

SEC vs. Ripple: Appeal Countdown Begins

This week could be a crucial moment in the SEC vs. Ripple case as the SEC must file its appeal-related opening brief by Wednesday, January 15. In October 2024, the SEC filed its Notice C, challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. This landmark decision enabled crypto exchanges to relist XRP, increasing adoption and allowing Ripple to expand its US business.

However, uncertainty looms over whether the SEC will file its opening brief. In a normal year, the SEC would continue with the appeal, meeting the January 15 deadline. However, Trump’s Presidential Election victory and an anticipated SEC overhaul have raised doubts about an appeal.

SEC Chair Gensler will leave the agency on January 20. Markets expect Trump’s nominated SEC Chair Paul Atkins to reverse course on the agency’s crypto-enforcement efforts. This could include withdrawing the appeal against rulings in the Ripple case.

SEC Closed Meeting: Ripple Case Under Discussion?

On Friday, January 10, the SEC held a closed meeting. According to the Sunshine Act Notice, items for discussion included:

• Institution and settlement of injunction actions;
• Institution and settlement of administration proceedings;
• Resolution of litigation claims; and
• Other matters relating to examinations and enforcement proceedings.

Commissioners and Counsel to the Commissioners must attend the closed meetings. There is no information relating to talking points from the meeting. However, considering its proximity to the opening brief deadline, Commissioners may have discussed the Ripple case.

OIG Investigation into Crypto Conflicts of Interest Within the SEC

Additionally, the Commissioners could also have reviewed the findings from the Office of Inspector General’s investigation into potential crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC. SEC Chair Gensler has the findings, which are not publicly available. It is unclear whether Chair Gensler shared the OIG’s findings internally.

The investigation centered around former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance William Hinman. In 2018, Hinman said that bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) were not securities – the contentious issue with the speech related to Hinman’s connection with the legal firm Simpson Thacher. The law firm forms part of a group promoting Enterprise Ethereum. After leaving the agency, Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher.

Hinman continued to meet with his former employer while working on crypto regulations. Disclosed Ripple case documents revealed that the SEC’s Ethics Division warned Hinman against engaging with his former employer.

During the discovery phase of the Ripple case, the SEC made at least six attempts to shield Hinman’s speech-related documents under attorney-client privilege. The agency’s motions highlighted the contentious nature of this investigation. However, the court rejected the SEC’s motions.

The SEC’s case against Ripple could face intense scrutiny if the OIG investigation finds the SEC acted biasedly against Ripple. In 2018, XRP was the second-largest crypto by market cap before being flipped by ETH.

XRP Price Trends: Ripple’s Legal Battle Dictate Market Sentiment

On Sunday, January 12, XRP declined by 2.81%, partly offsetting Friday’s 10.09% rally and closing at $2.5045. Significantly, XRP underperformed the broader crypto market, which dipped by 0.54% to a total market cap of $3.23 trillion.

XRP price trends hinge on the Ripple case. XRP could drop below $2 if the SEC files its opening brief, offering convincing arguments. The token may eventually fall to $0.50 if Ripple loses at the Second Circuit. Conversely, XRP could break above its 2018 record high of $3.5505 if the agency withdraws its appeal.

Explore our expert analysis here on the SEC’s next move and its implications for XRP’s future.

Bitcoin Hovers as Pro-Crypto Administration Countdown Clock Hits Seven

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover around the $95k handle after last week’s drop below $100k. On January 20, President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration will open the Oval Office door to the first pro-crypto administration.

Ahead of the Inauguration Day, progress toward a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) has fuelled expectations for a marked shift in BTC’s supply-demand balance. In late 2024, crypto advocate Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US government purchase one million BTC over five years to tackle the national debt crisis.

In a recent interview, Anthony Scaramucci said the US government might acquire 500k BTC, adding to its pre-existing 198,109 BTC stockpile. Scaramucci noted that Trump, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want it to happen.

Since the interview, the Senate Banking Committee announced plans to launch a digital assets subcommittee. Senator Lummis is in the running to chair the subcommittee.

Crypto experts have offered bullish BTC projections if the BTC becomes a US strategic reserve asset.

Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton recently stated,

“If the U.S. Government (USG) passes Senator Lummis’ Bill and begins buying BTC, it will no doubt cause other nations to follow suit, just like with gold. It could literally create Nation State FOMO, and if that occurs, $1M per BTC happens a lot faster than people think.”

Bitcoin Price Outlook

On Sunday, January 12, BTC gained 0.05%, partially reversing Saturday’s 0.29% loss to close at $94,585.

BTC’s near-term trends hinge on US inflation data, BTC-spot ETF market flow trends, and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) developments. Hotter-than-expected US inflation numbers on January 15 could trigger spot ETF outflows, potentially impacting BTC demand. However, progress toward a US SBR would likely counter the effects of a hawkish Fed rate path, supporting new highs.

Meanwhile, BTC could drop below the $90,742 support level if an SBR faced bipartisan resistance.

Market Outlook: XRP and BTC at a Crossroads

XRP and BTC remain under the influence of regulatory decisions and macroeconomic trends. XRP’s future depends on the SEC’s appeal strategy, while BTC’s trajectory hinges on ETF market flows and progress toward a US SBR. Broader regulatory and Fed sentiment will also influence market sentiment.

Stay updated here with our expert insights for a deeper understanding of these pivotal developments.