The SEC vs. Ripple case remained a talking point over the weekend. Since the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed its Civil Appeal Pre-Argument Statement (Form C), speculation about the SEC and Ripple’s likely strategies has intensified.
However, the agency requested an extension to submit its appeal-related opening brief. The extension means the SEC will file its opening brief after the US Presidential Election.
A Donald Trump victory may alter the SEC’s stance on regulating the US digital asset space. Trump pledged to fire SEC Chair Gensler on day one in office. Notably, the US Presidential Inauguration is on January 20, 2025, shortly after the SEC’s deadline to file its opening brief.
The SEC could withdraw its appeal against rulings in the Ripple case if Trump wins the election. However, a Kamala Harris win may also lead to a new SEC Chair, with reports suggesting the US Vice President is considering a replacement. A more pragmatic SEC chair supporting innovation while protecting investors may materially alter crypto sentiment, potentially fueling adoption.
For XRP, the possibility of a new SEC Chair and an end to the appeal offers hope and near-term support. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen recently donated millions of XRP to Kamala Harris’s campaign, reflecting the increasingly bipartisan stance on crypto as the election approaches.
A bipartisan Capitol Hill can only be good news for Ripple and XRP, not to mention other crypto firms entangled in legal battles with the SEC.
Kamala Harris’ recent support for the digital asset space may potentially reduce the chances of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act progressing through Congress. The bill aims to empower the SEC to regulate the digital asset space with banking-style regulations that may further impact the crypto market.
In contrast, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand introduced the Responsible Financial Innovation Act. The bill would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) greater authority over digital assets while supporting innovation. A bipartisan Congress supporting innovation could make the Responsible Financial Innovation Act a viable option.
On Sunday, October 27, XRP advanced by 0.58%, following a 2.35% gain from the previous session to close at $0.5165. However, XRP underperformed the broader crypto market, which increased by 1.38% to a crypto market cap of $2.263 trillion.
XRP could hover below the $0.55 level as investors consider the likelihood of the SEC overturning the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. Nonetheless, optimism around a bipartisan Congress and the end to the SEC’s assault on cryptos could cushion any potential downside.
While XRP advanced, BTC approached the critical $70,000 threshold. Market sentiment toward supply-demand balances continues supporting BTC, pushing BTC toward $70,000.
The upcoming US Presidential Election also remains a focal point for BTC as investors consider recent US BTC-spot ETF flow trends. If Trump were to consider making BTC part of the US strategic reserve and a BTC HODLER, it could further tilt the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor.
Including BTC as a US strategic reserve could curb oversupply risks stemming from the US government’s BTC stockpile. According to Arkham Intelligence, the US government currently holds 208,109 BTC, equivalent to $14.11 billion.
Last week, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $997.6 million, following inflows of $2,129.6 million the previous week.
On Sunday, ETF Store President Nate Geraci underscored the BTC-spot ETF market’s importance, stating,
“Spot bitcoin ETFs now about 23,000 away from holding 1,000,000 BTC… Or almost 5% of BTC final total supply.”
Increasing BTC demand through spot ETFs and a Trump victory may potentially drive BTC through its all-time high of $73,808. Significantly, BTC could target $100,000 if the US government pledges to hodl and US BTC-spot ETF inflows spike.
According to the latest US Presidential Election Polls, Kamala Harris leads Trump by 1.5 points, down from 2.8% on September 30.
On Sunday, October 27, BTC advanced by 1.22% after a 0.51% gain from the previous session, closing at $67,972.
On Monday, October 28, the US Presidential Election and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends will be the likely focal points. Increasing support for Trump in the national poll could boost BTC demand, potentially driving BTC to the crucial $70,000 level.
However, US BTC-spot ETF inflows remain crucial. A continued upward trend in BTC-spot ETF inflows would continue to bolster BTC demand.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.