On Wednesday, December 4, news hit the wires of President-elect Donald Trump nominating former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair. Atkins will take office on January 20, 2025, coinciding with Chair Gary Gensler’s departure. This leadership shift signals a potential overhaul of crypto policy.
Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett reported the news, stating,
“NEW from me: Trump nominates Paul Atkins to lead Securities and Exchange Commission. Sources tell Fox Business Atkins accepted the job Monday at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida residence and country club that has served as his transition team headquarters.”
Former SEC Office of Internet Enforcement Chief John Reed Stark recently commented on Atkins and his crypto stance, saying,
“He would likely reverse course on the SEC’s crypto-enforcement efforts. […] Paul favors free markets and hates over-regulation – which should be a net-positive for the cryptoverse.”
As SEC Chair, Atkins will face immediate challenges, including whether the SEC will:
For XRP and the broader crypto market, the SEC’s plans regarding its appeal against Ripple will be pivotal. The SEC must file its appeal-related opening brief by January 15, just days before Atkins becomes SEC Chair.
XRP could face selling pressure if the SEC files its opening brief, offering convincing arguments against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. Conversely, XRP could climb to new highs if the SEC withdraws its appeal. A withdrawal would set the Programmatic Sales ruling as a pivotal legal precedent.
Will SEC Chair Gensler go quietly, or is there one final surprise for the crypto market?
On Wednesday, John Reed Stark shared updates from within the SEC, highlighting Chair Gensler’s stance toward crypto, stating,
“Gensler just promoted three of the best, brightest, experienced and most dedicated crypto-enforcement lawyers in SEC ranks to senior executive positions —running the SEC’s Trial Unit and running the SEC’s Crypto Unit.”
Commenting on Atkins’ nomination to become the next SEC Chair, Stark added,
“The Stark reality is that it looks like the crypto-fight is on post-January 20th. So get ready for World War III on day one Chair Atkins, because these three crypto-enforcement lawyers, who are now in charge, are some of the best in the business and will not roll over easily.”
Stark also pointed out that the SEC did not publicly announce the promotions, suggesting the agency may continue pursuing its appeal against Ripple.
Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton, a vocal crypto advocate, reacted to Stark’s comments, saying,
“If Paul Atkins doesn’t fire, or at least demote, certain individuals and completely dismantle – that is, do away with – the crypto unit, he’s not the right pick. Period! “
Deaton also said he will be looking for four things from Atkins on Day 1, including:
XRP investors will be hoping for more, including a withdrawal from the appeal against Ripple. However, Atkins’ Day 1 as SEC Chair will likely be a defining moment for XRP and the US digital asset space.
On Wednesday, December 4, XRP declined by 6.02%, following Tuesday’s 7.82% slide, closing at $2.3621. XRP likely faced selling pressure as investors await the agency’s decision on the Ripple appeal and Atkins’ first moves as SEC Chair.
Ripple case-related news, XRP-spot ETF-related updates, and progress toward approval of Ripple USD (RLUSD) are key catalysts potentially influencing XRP demand. A favorable SEC stance could drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.5505. However, adverse outcomes may intensify selling pressure.
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On Tuesday, December 3, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $676 million, extending its inflow streak to four sessions. BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bolstered BTC demand, registering net inflows of $693.3 million.
On Wednesday, IBIT will need similar flow trends to extend the inflow streak to five sessions. According to Farside Investors:
Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), the US BTC-spot ETF market registered net outflows of $14.9 million on Wednesday.
US BTC-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial for BTC price action and a break above $100,000.
Atkins’ appointment as SEC Chair could further influence BTC demand. Trump pledged to make BTC a US strategic reserve asset on the campaign trail and vowed to make the US government a BTC HOLDER.
If Trump successfully makes BTC a strategic reserve asset, BTC could soar to unprecedented levels. Firstly, the US government would become a BTC HODLER, mitigating oversupply risk. Currently, the US government has a 198,109 BTC stockpile, equivalent to $19.5 billion. Secondly, the US government’s demand for BTC may tilt the supply-demand balance firmly in BTC’s favor.
Atkins’ nomination as SEC Chair brings Trump’s pledge one step closer to reality. The SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) must establish clear regulatory guidelines. However, Congress, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the President must approve BTC as a strategic reserve asset.
On Wednesday, BTC rallied 2.96%, reversing a 0.06% dip from Tuesday, closing at $98,582.
Near-term BTC price trends will depend on US BTC-spot ETF flow data, US government BTC sales-related news, and Trump’s CFTC Chair nomination. A pro-crypto nomination could support progress in BTC becoming a US strategic reserve asset and a move above $100,000.
However, investors should monitor US government activity. BTC could face selling pressure if the US government moves more BTC and the US BTC-spot ETF market registers net outflows.
XRP and BTC are entering a pivotal phase. XRP’s trajectory hinges on the SEC’s Ripple case decisions, while BTC’s path to $100,000 depends on ETF inflows and pro-crypto policies under the new administration. Investors should monitor regulatory developments closely as the crypto landscape undergoes a potential transformation.
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With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.