Australia Leading Economic Index

Last Release

Mar 31, 2025

Actual

-0.1

Units In

0.1

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

May 29, 2025

Time to Release

1 Months 9 Days 15 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
0.76 Nov 2020	-1.74 Apr 2020	0 %	1960-2025	Westpac-Melbourne Institute

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.

Latest Updates

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged down 0.1% month-over-month in March 2025, reversing the 0.1% increases in the previous two months. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate—which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months ahead—fell to 0.6% from 0.9% in February. The latest data suggest the economy is beginning to feel the impact of trade policy disruptions that intensified following U.S. President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement on April 2. Westpac now expects GDP growth to slow to around 1.9% year-over-year in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.2%. According to Matthew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, the weakening external environment and mounting evidence of sustained slowing in domestic inflation will likely prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver an additional 25bps rate cut at its May meeting.