United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

Jan 31, 2025

Actual

Units In

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Mar 10, 2025

Time to Release

26 Days 14 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.35 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained at 3% for a third consecutive month in January 2025. Price expectations rose across for gas (+0.6 percentage point to 2.6%), food (+0.6 percentage point to 4.6%), medical care (+1 percentage point to 6.8%), college (+0.2 percentage point to 5.9%) and rent (+0.5 percentage point to 6%). Also, median home price growth expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%, driven by respondents in the West region. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year horizon were also steady at 3% while those for the five-year-ahead rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3%, the highest since May 2024. Elsewhere, unemployment expectations decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 34%, the measure’s lowest reading since July 2021. Also, expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3% while household spending growth expectations declined by 0.4 percentage point to 4.4%, its lowest since January 2021.