United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

Mar 31, 2025

Actual

3.6

Units In

3.1

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

May 12, 2025

Time to Release

25 Days 18 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.35 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose for the second straight month to 3.6% in March 2025, the highest level since October 2023 from 3.1% in February. Median year-ahead expected price growth increased for food (+0.1 percentage point to 5.2%, its highest level since May 2024), medical care (+0.7 percentage point to 7.9%), and rent (+0.5 percentage point to 7.2%). On the other hand, price expectations fell for gas (-0.5 percentage point to 3.2%), college education (-0.2 percentage point to 6.7%), and home price growth (-0.3 percentage point to 3%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3% for the three-year-ahead horizon, and ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% at the five-year-ahead horizon. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8% and mean unemployment expectations jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44%, the highest reading since April 2020.