United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

Feb 28, 2025

Actual

3.1

Units In

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Apr 14, 2025

Time to Release

1 Months 2 Days 11 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.35 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose for the first time in four months, edging up to 3.1% in February 2025 from 3% in the previous three months, marking the highest level since May. Median expected price growth increased for gas (+1.1 percentage points to 3.7%, the highest level since June 2024); food (+0.5 percentage point to 5.1%, the highest level since May 2024); medical care (+0.4 percentage point to 7.2%); college degree (+1 percentage point to 6.9%); and rent (+0.7 percentage point to 6.7%). Also, median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year horizon and the five-year-ahead were unchanged at 3%. Elsewhere, unemployment expectations jumped 5.4 percentage points to 39.4%, its highest reading since September 2023. Expectations for household income growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%.