Brexit Update – An Imminent Brexit Deal or Yet more Froth?

The Latest

Following the Pound’s double hit at the start of the week, support kicked in this morning.

Ahead of today’s move, the Pound had seen 3 consecutive days in the red. The pullback had come after the latest high of $1.36248.

If the news wires are anything to go by, a Brexit deal is on the cards in spite of EU demands over UK fisheries.

Optimism came from EU Chief Negotiator Barnier, who said that the EU was making one last push to deliver a deal before the end of the transition period.

The comments came following news earlier in the week that EU President Ursula von der Leyen was taking control of negotiations.

Both the EU President and British Prime Minister Johnson have been in regular contact via the “Brex-phone” this week.

Expecting Britain to shift its stance on sovereignty, however, is an altogether different matter. Regular dialogue and more does not change a reality.

Barnier’s optimism came with caveats that included remaining hurdles over UK fisheries.

4-years on and the EU remains adamant that EU access to UK waters should remain unchanged.

Another area of disagreement remains the issue of a level playing field.

It also remains to be seen where the news media get their timelines from. Some media portals have suggested a deal by Thursday.

The Brexit Dress Rehearsal?

Both sides continue to struggle to find common ground on UK fisheries. Alarming comments have circulated, however, as the UK gets hit by a new coronavirus strain.

UK travel restrictions, as a result of the new strain of the coronavirus, gave some an opportunity to compare border disruption to what lies ahead in event of a no-deal Brexit.

Lives are at stake and more and simply seizing the opportunity to scaremonger for political gain seems ethically unsound.

This week’s comments from the EU are just another reason why countries such as Britain are better off going it alone.

Clearly, the fall back to WTO trade terms does not mean that EU member states will close borders. The UK wouldn’t be the only country trading with the EU under WTO trade terms, assuming a deal remains elusive until the New Year.

EU member states and Britain should, therefore, not see this as a dress rehearsal to what lies ahead should Britain fail to give up its sovereignty.

Perhaps such chatter would further justify Britain’s hard stance…

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.50% to $1.34192.

With the upside coming from positive chatter from EU chief negotiator Barnier, hope continues to support the Pound.

That leaves a heavy downside should news hit the wires of an end to talks until the New Year.

It is far-fetched to imagine Britain agreeing to the EU’s demands on access to UK fisheries. It may even be more far-fetched to think that the EU would back down at the last minute.

That hope of a last-minute concession has orbited Brexit talks for most of this year…

Perhaps it is time for the likes of Macron to take a more reasonable stance. Such a shift would allow both sides to get over the elusive finishing line.

The alternative would be to wait for Macron to lose next year’s election. Perhaps the EU can then take a more realistic and more reasonable position vis-à-vis relationships with non-EU countries.