Dutch Elections in The Shadow of Turkish Comments War

As Netherlands is about to start its race to the prime minister seat on Wednesday, Turkey declared comments war on Netherlands. The stretches broke out last week when the Turkish president lashed out at Germans describing them by “the Nazis”. That came after German authorities decision to cancel pro-Turkish government rallies. These rallies were scheduled by Turkish immigrants in Germany to support the AKP ruling party in the referendum scheduled on April.

Netherlands was not far away from the scene. On Saturday, Turkish foreign minister attempt to visit the Turkish embassy in Netherlands; hence, the Netherlands authorities barred him from entering the country because of fears that this visit may has connection to the rallies planed to take place in Rotterdam. Later on, at another incident, the Dutch authorities banned another official minister from visiting the embassy.

The Turkish Authority responded to the barring of the two ministers by summoning the Dutch ambassador to the foreign ministry three times, the last time he was informed by closing the Netherlands embassy in Ankara. Moreover, president Erdogan asked the international community to apply sanctions over Netherlands to breach the Geneva Convention concerning the embassy issues. From the Netherlands side, incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte said ‘ The comments were inflammatory’ and demanded an apology, while we didn’t see any comments from the other candidates.

The remarkable notice here that these three countries all have polls. According to David Chesal, CNN journalist, interpreting the situation that Erdogan is showing his supporters, can influence Europe in case he lasted in the authority.

The biggest Dutch candidates on this election are the incumbent prime minister representing the People’s Party of Freedom and Democracy (VVD) representing the right, and the far right candidate Greet Wilder of the  party of freedom (PVV). On American approach, Netherlands candidates are focusing on the immigration and terrorism issues in the highlights of high Syrian refugees’ numbers beside the terrorism and immigration issues, Greet wilder decided to raise the NREXIT flag.

As most of observers seeing that if Greed Welder wins, it will be a great victory to the Trump camp. Especially after Angela Merkel decided to join the camp by commenting on Erdogan comments by saying “Many things are changing actually. The character of the transatlantic relationship …. Nonetheless, tat partnership based on the shared values and interests extremely for all of us, I am going to have my conversation with Mr. Trump in Washington in my next weeks visit” she continued to say ” European nations will have to take no more responsibility for defense and handling problems of their own backyard including the Balkans”. That came as a respond to Erdogan describing Germany by Nazism. She was referring to Trump idea of the NATO suggested reconstruction – as Turkey is member in the NATO.

The financial markets react positively to the latest political events, despite the approach of the NL elections. NL 2 Years bond negative yields showing a strong trust in the government by that time. In addition, the AEX index has seen a strong bullishness in the last days despite the consolidation occurring currently in the rest of Europe and US indices.

The Euro is showing a great strengthen as well, despite the high probabilities of a foreseeable US Fed rate hike. Euro soared before all pairs without exception during the previous week.

EUR/NZD pair was the most gainer previous week; the chart shows 500 pips within two weeks. That strong movement came after a long term of a of paralysis in financial markets followed the trump inauguration. It also reflects how much the markets are satisfied and confident with the Netherlands outcomes.