As earnings season begins, S&P 500 forecast looks less weak

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) – As quarterly U.S. earnings got under way with upbeat reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co and other major banks Friday, analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago.

Based on actual results from 30 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest, analysts now expect earnings for the S&P 500 in aggregate to have declined 4.8% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period, according to Refinitiv data Friday. That compares with their week-ago forecast for a 5.2% year-over-year decline in the quarter.

S&P 500 earnings fell 3.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, based on Refinitiv data, which means the first quarter still would mark a second straight quarterly decline in U.S. earnings, or a profit recession.

Investors have been eagerly awaiting quarterly results from banks following the collapse of two U.S. regional banks in March.

While shares of JPMorgan and other big banks rallied following Friday’s results, shares of regional banks mostly fell, with PNC Financial Services Group Inc ending nearly flat after it posted a quarterly profit beat but missed expectations on net interest income.

“While we don’t think earnings season will bring much in the way of good news, expectations are low enough that we may see stocks hold up again after results,” Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston, wrote in a note Friday.

A slew of other regional banks are still due to report in the coming weeks, including Zions Bancorp on Wednesday. Quarterly results are also expected next week from Goldman Sachs Group and Netflix.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Alistair Bell and Deepa Babington)