Marketmind: Jumpy around jobs

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has made sure there is heightened focus on today’s U.S. payrolls data. In his speech to Congress, Powell curiously mentioned this data point as one among a couple of indicators framing the Fed’s thinking around how far and fast interest rates need to rise.

That nervous anticipation isn’t the only thing weighing on markets. Asian banking and tech stocks are weak, after a plunge in the S&P 500 bank index overnight marking its biggest one-day drop in nearly three years.

That was triggered by startup lender SVB Financial Group’s share sale announcement and crypto bank Silvergate’s decision to wind down operations.

Investors head into Friday pricing in a roughly 63% likelihood of a larger, 50 basis point increase to the Fed funds target rate this month, after Thursday’s U.S. jobs report showing a rise in jobless claims pushed Treasury yields down and reduced inversion in the front of the curve.

The nail-biting around payrolls has meant investors barely reacted to other unsurprising but orchestrated developments in Asia.

Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third five-year term on Friday as China’s president as he tightens his grip as the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

Haruhiko Kuroda concluded his last policy meeting as Bank of Japan governor, leaving Japan’s ultra-low interest rates and controversial bond yield control policy an issue for successor Kazuo Ueda to tackle.

Stronger-than-expected job market, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/PAYROLLS/egvbyoxewpq/chart.png

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

U.S. February payrolls

U.K. January industrial production

(Reporting by Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Christopher Cushing)