Marketmind: Market mood downbeat ahead of raft of data

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

The overarching downbeat mood among investors shows no signs of improving as markets become increasingly wary of a further rise in borrowing costs.Although U.S. markets took a breather and rose on Monday, they ended well below the day’s highs and Asian markets were back in the red on Tuesday after gaining in early trade.

Tuesday’s U.S. consumer confidence data will be especially scrutinised for households’ views on economic prospects and inflation expectations.

Economists polled by Reuters expect a median reading of 109.5 on the index, which unexpectedly fell in January.

European markets will deal with CPI data due from France and Spain.

Despite sharp increases in interest rates by major central banks, predictions of economies worldwide falling into recession continue to miss the mark.

While inflation has eased a bit, providing some support to markets, a barrage of economic data suggests that inflation is stickier than expected, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” rates view.

Leading indicators signal recession, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/RECESSIONTEMPLATE/jnvwyaxervw/chart.png

On Tuesday, sterling gave up some gains after rising by 0.98% against the dollar a day earlier, when it recorded its biggest daily gain in more than seven weeks.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland.

Sunak immediately won plaudits from business groups who welcomed the easing of trade rules.

The news comes at a time when Britain’s economy, which looked likely to fall into recession in early 2023, is showing some unexpected signs of recovery, raising questions about whether the Bank of England really is about to pause its run of interest rate increases.

UK’s sluggish recovery, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-ECONOMY/znvnbxkgkvl/chart.png

In Asia, incoming Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida brushed aside the chance of an immediate overhaul of ultra-loose monetary policy, suggesting that any review of its policy framework could take about a year.

Elsewhere, data showed that Japan’s factory output shrank at the fastest pace in eight months in January as declining overseas demand took a heavy toll on key industries

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

Europe economic data: France Feb prelim CPI, final Q4 GDP; Spain, Portugal Feb flash CPI; Germany Jan import prices

Europe results: Man, Abrdn, Ocado, Travis Perkins 

U.S. economic data: Dec house price data, Feb Chicago PMI 

U.S. earnings: Target Corp, Jones Lang LaSalle, Manchester United

(Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Edmund Klamann)