Marketmind: Turbulence

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The December snowstorms that sent Southwest Airlines and U.S. air travel into chaos last year may be sending a chill through markets’ soft-landing hopes for the broader economy.

Traders took Wednesday’s weak U.S. production, retail sales and producer price data badly, selling risk assets and buying safer ones. Bond markets shrugged off hawkish rhetoric from non-voting Fed officials Bullard and Mester to rally.

It is hard to gauge, however, how much to read in to a month typically distorted by seasonal adjustments for holidays and in this case badly affected by the weather.

Still, the mood has lingered over stocks and Asia has carried on with the bond rally, driving benchmark 10-year treasury yields another five basis points lower and toward a test of the 200-day moving average.

Fed voters Lael Brainard and John Williams might get more of markets’ attention at events later in the day.

Elsewhere, the dust is settling quickly on the Bank of Japan’s decision not to bend to speculators’ attack on its yield curve control policy.

The yen has bounced back to where it was before the meeting and the Nikkei slipped, though calm in Japan’s bond market might suggest short sellers are having a breather before re-loading for meetings in March and April.

Markets had little response to the surprise resignation of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, though it is a handy reminder to expect the unexpected in 2023.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

Economics: U.S. housing starts, jobless claims and Philly Fed business index

Speakers: Fed’s Brainard and Williams, ECB’s Knot and Lagarde

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Kim Coghill)