The 5 Facts About Russian Natural Gas Without Ukraine & Turkey

Just two weeks ago the relationship between Turkey and Russia, although not friendly was cordial. The two countries had developed extensive trade relations with Turkey importing everything from vegetables to oil products from their Northern neighbor. The reason the relationship was not more advanced was due to the fact that Turkey was a member of NATO, putting it on the opposite of military understandings, cooperation and objectives. Regardless there was closeness and a common understanding between the Russians and the Turks. Tempers have flared in recent times due to the military situation in the Ukraine, but Turkey was able to keep things low key.

Russia and Turkey have been in the planning stages of building a joint gas pipeline to supply Turkey with gas directly from Russia. At present “Gazprom” provides Ankara about 27 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year – according to Today’s Zaman, almost 70% of the consumption of Turkey. According to Turkish reports, the cessation of Russian gas exports would leave Ankara with gas reserves for only two weeks. Turkey is the second largest importer of Russian gas after Germany. Russian natural gas exports to Turkey doubled in the last decade to meet the growing demand of the industry.

As President Putin emerged himself in the Syrian conflict the Russians ended up on the opposite side of the conflict with Turkey a member of NATO they had no choice in the matter. Putin gradually elevated his military intervention due to the heightened problems with ISIS even though the West and Russia had a common enemy they remained on opposing sides when it came to President Assad. Russian fighters began striking rebels as well as ISIS terrorist. With 100’s of jet fighters in the skies flying all undisclosed bombing and intelligence missions it was inevitable that an error, mistake or conflict would occur. Unfortunately a Russian jet fighter was found in questionable Turkish airspace and was shot down. This could have been a mistake, there could be all kinds of explanations, but President Putin was not hearing of these. He would not even accept a phone call from the Turkish leader. Although there is no military building or aggression from this event which is now about headlines and apologies, Russia is taking a hard stance on Turkey.

The so-called new Blue Stream had been planned to deliver Russian natural gas to Southern Europe and Turkey, bypassing Ukraine via four pipelines under the Black Sea. The project was launched at the height of a pro-Russian separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine, which has significantly strained ties between Moscow and the Ukraine. But now it’s Russia and Turkey finding themselves at odds. The discontinued talks are only the latest event in the worsening diplomatic row between the two countries. Moscow has also reacted to the downing of the plane by restricting food imports, construction projects and visa-free travel.

In his annual State of the Nation address to parliament, Russian president Vladimir Putin on Thursday threatened to ratchet up the sanctions it has already imposed, although he did rule out military action.

In his speech on Thursday, Putin said Russia has proof that Turkey was buying oil from the terrorist group; thereby helping IS finance weapons purchases, recruitment and attacks against civilians like in Paris and Beirut.

Europe might be left without Russian gas going through Ukraine by the early 2020s. The implications of this scenario could be dramatic for Europe, after a period of rising energy demand and prices. It remains to be seen whether structural changes in the markets and geopolitics force Gazprom’s political masters to rationalize its European strategy, and in particular its strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine. Should this rationalization occur, then the Russians could flood the European markets with cheap gas, fueling the much sought re-industrialization of European economies. But this would require more than just a rational business plan. Investments in political capital are needed to rebuild trust at the highest level between Russia and Europe, and most importantly, between Russia and Ukraine.