The Week Ahead – Central Bank Policy Decisions and Russia in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 59 stats due out through the week ending 18^th March. In the week prior, 50 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Wholesale inflation will be in focus early in the week. Mid-week, retail sales will also be key ahead of the weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

The main event of the week, however, will be the FED monetary policy decision on Wednesday. With the markets expecting a rate hike, the FOMC projections and FED press conference will be key drivers.

In the week ending 11^th March, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.48% to 99.124.

For the EUR:

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will draw interest early in the week. The markets will get a sense of how analysts see the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacting the respective economies.

At the end of the week, trade data and wage growth for the Eurozone will also draw attention.

Other stats in the week, include finalized member state and Eurozone inflation numbers for February. We don’t expect these numbers to influence, however. The recent surge in oil prices will further drive inflationary pressures in March.

For the week, the EUR slipped by 0.15% to $1.0912.

For the Pound:

Claimant counts and the UK unemployment rate are the key stats for the week.

While the numbers will draw interest, the Bank of England monetary policy decision will be the main event of the week. On Thursday, the markets will be looking for views on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will impact the UK economy and affect monetary policy.

The Pound slid by 1.46% to end the week at $1.3037.

For the Loonie:

Inflation and retail sales figures are due out in the week. While both sets of numbers will draw attention, market risk sentiment and crude oil prices will provide direction.

OPEC’s monthly report on Tuesday will certainly garner plenty of interest, following sanctions on Russia.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.10% to C$1.2744 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

Employment figures for February are the main stats of the week. While the numbers will influence, market risk sentiment will remain the key driver.

The Aussie Dollar slid by 1.04% to $0.7293.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with stats limited 4^th quarter GDP numbers. We don’t expect the numbers to influence, with the markets looking forward.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.74% to $0.6809.

For the Japanese Yen:

Trade and inflation figures are due out in the week. Barring an unexpected spike in consumer prices, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on the Yen.

On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan is also in focus, though the markets are not expecting any surprises.

The Japanese Yen slid by 2.15% to end the week at ¥117.290 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Industrial production, fixed asset investments, and retail sales figures are in focus on Tuesday. With little else for the markets to consider, the stats will provide some distraction for the markets.

In the week ending 11^th March, the Yuan fell by 0.31% to end the week at 6.3393 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of focus in the week ahead, which will continue to overshadow economic data.