The Week Ahead – Monetary policy, Economic Data, COVID-19, and Geo-politics are in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 59 stats to monitor in the week ending 1^st April. In the week prior, 49 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a busy week ahead for the greenback.

Key stats in the week include April consumer confidence figures on Tuesday and 1^st quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday.

We expect both sets of numbers to have an influence on the broader market.

The markets will be looking to see if the IMF forecasts for 2020 are reasonable or on the pessimistic side.

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims and April inflation figures will also garner some attention.

March’s personal spending numbers on Thursday, however, could have the greatest impact. The markets will get a sense of just how bad consumption was going into the April shutdown.

Wrapping up the week, ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers on Friday will also influence. Anything below 40 and expect a pickup in demand for the havens…

On the monetary policy front, the FED is in action on Wednesday. Expect any forward guidance to materially influence the global financial markets.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.60% to 100.380.

For the EUR:

It’s also a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

The markets will need to wait until Thursday for a data deluge, however.

On Thursday, 1^st estimate GDP numbers for France, Spain, and the Eurozone are in focus.

There are also German and Eurozone unemployment numbers and French and German consumer spending figures.

Expect plenty of influence ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision later in the day.

The GDP numbers come at just the right time and may give the ECB cause to promise more support.

Assuming a hold on monetary policy, the focus will be on Lagarde and the ECB Press Conference.

Prelim inflation numbers out of member states and the Eurozone will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

The European markets are closed on Friday…

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.48% to $1.0823.

For the Pound:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized April Manufacturing PMI numbers on Friday are in focus.

Barring a material deviation from prelim, however, the markets will likely brush aside the numbers.

Expect the focus to remain on UK politics, any updates on Brexit and the transition period, and COVID-19.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 1.06% to $1.2367.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

February GDP and March RMPI numbers are due out on Thursday.

With the BoC having already delivered in recent weeks, the Loonie will likely brush aside the numbers.

We will expect market risk sentiment and crude oil prices to be the key driver in the week.

The key for crude oil price stability, near-term, remains a more sizeable cut in production by OPEC, Russia, and the U.S.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.73% to C$1.4103 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead. We’re not expecting too much influence from the numbers, however.

On Wednesday, 1^st quarter inflation figures will have limited impact, with deflationary pressures expected to build in April.

Wholesale inflation figures for the 1^st quarter, due out on Friday, could give some idea of what’s to come, however.

Expect March private sector credit figures on Thursday and April manufacturing figures on Friday to garner some interest.

HIA new home sales figures on Friday will likely have a muted impact, however.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.08% to $0.6371.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic data front. In a shortened week, 1^st quarter employment and March trade figures are in focus.

With New Zealand having weathered the COVID-19 storm, the numbers may be considered the bottom for the Kiwi Dollar.

Better than expected figures should provide some much-needed support ahead of April business confidence numbers on Thursday.

A pickup in business confidence would add to the upside, though April was still affected by the global lockdown.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.30% to $0.6017.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a busy week ahead.

March prelim industrial production and retail sales figures will be the key drivers on Thursday.

We would expect March job to application numbers on Tuesday and April inflation figures on Friday to be brushed aside.

The BoJ’s monetary policy decision on Tuesday will have an impact, however… Will the BoJ make a move or hold off? The press conference later in the day may tell more…

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.03% to ¥107.51 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

Industrial profit figures for March are due out on Monday. With economic woe gripping the markets, expect the numbers to have an influence on risk sentiment.

April’s NBS private sector PMIs are due out on Thursday and will also provide direction to riskier assets.

A pullback to sub-50 would certainly be a concern for the global financial markets. March numbers had delivered support, whilst raising the question of whether the expansion was sustainable…

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.11% to CNY7.0815 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

OPEC

What’s next for OPEC and other global oil producers? The markets have spoken and far more is needed to deliver price stability. A further 20m bpd cut would counter the slide in demand, which may be a bitter pill for producers to swallow. Some producers, simply as a result of price pressure alone, will have had little choice but to cut output. The list won’t include the Saudis, however…

UK Politics:

No news is not always good news, particularly when Brexit is involved. Little progress has been made in trade talks, which will place more pressure on Johnson to extend the transition period.

An insistence on sticking to the timelines will pressure the Pound… Expect plenty of chatter with the British PM due to return to Office on Monday.

Outside of Brexit, the markets will also be in search of some direction on how the government plans to ease lockdown measures. The number of COVID-19 related deaths has now surpassed 20,000.

U.S Politics:

Unlike the EU, the U.S administration continues to deliver much-needed support.

While Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is in question, funds appear to be heading out the door.

This has not prevented Democrat front runner Joe Biden from narrowing the gap.

The U.S President looks to be changing the narrative, however, with some focus now being placed on Iran…

The Coronavirus:

Friday’s figures delivered a spike in the number of new cases globally and in the U.S.

This will need to be a blip for the markets to avoid another meltdown in the early part of the week. Expect the weekend and early part of the week updates to garner plenty of attention.

While Saturday’s figures were lower, they remained higher than the numbers reported pre-Friday.

A new upward trend would certainly question plans to ease lockdown measures in the U.S…

Corporate Earnings

It’s a big week ahead on the U.S corporate earnings front. A deluge of bad news could be yet another resilience test for the global equity markets…

From Germany, Adidas (Mon), Daimler (Thurs), and Deutsche Bank (Thurs) are due to release earnings results…