The Federal Reserve’s approach of incrementally raising borrowing rates to counter inflation has not led to the feared economic downturn or significant job losses. Instead, the employment sector has flourished, with an average of 251,000 jobs added monthly in the past year, and a higher rate of 265,000 jobs per month from December through February. Inflation, which had reached a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022, has eased down to 3.2%, still over the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
Growth in the fourth quarter was reinforced by the strong performance of various industries. Manufacturing and construction sectors led the charge in goods production, while retail trade and healthcare significantly contributed to the services sector. Government expenditure at both federal and state levels also played a crucial role.
Given these developments, the short-term outlook for the US economy is positively inclined. The blend of continuous growth, a solid job market, and reduced inflation sets a positive stage for the economy. However, market participants should stay alert for possible fluctuations, particularly considering the Federal Reserve’s rate policies and the wider economic conditions. Investment opportunities seem especially promising in consumer-focused markets and nonfinancial corporate sectors, aligning with current growth trends.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.