US Housing Shows Mixed Signals; Growth in Starts, Flat Permits

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Published: Aug 16, 2023, 12:47 GMT+00:00

In July, building permits declined 13% from 2022, while housing starts surged 6.7% from June.

Highlights

Housing starts rise 3.9% from June.
Building permits marginally up by 0.1%.
Housing completions down by 11.8% in July.

U.S. Housing Market Trends for July Revealed

In today’s report on the U.S. housing market, noteworthy movements were observed. The focus was on building permits, housing starts, and housing completions for the month of July, offering a detailed picture of the sector’s current health.

Building Permits Paint a Mixed Picture

The number of housing units authorized by building permits in July stood at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1,442,000. This reflected a marginal 0.1% increase from June’s revised rate of 1,441,000. However, when juxtaposed with last year’s numbers, there’s a significant 13.0% drop from the July 2022 figure of 1,658,000. Diving deeper, single-family authorizations rose by 0.6% from June to July, reaching 930,000. On the other hand, permits for units in buildings housing five units or more were recorded at 464,000.

Housing Starts Show Promise

July experienced an uplift in privately-owned housing starts, clocking in at 1,452,000, which is a 3.9% rise from June’s estimate. Year-on-year, this translates to a 5.9% increase from July 2022’s rate of 1,371,000. Of these, single-family housing starts constituted 983,000, marking a commendable 6.7% surge from the previous month. Larger buildings, with five or more units, witnessed a rate of 460,000 starts in July.

A Dip in Housing Completions

The housing completion figures for July weren’t as rosy. The data revealed an 11.8% drop from June, with the rate standing at 1,321,000. This is also 5.4% lower than July 2022’s rate of 1,396,000. Despite the overall decrease, single-family housing completions saw a slight uptick of 1.3% from June, registering at 1,018,000. However, larger buildings reported a completion rate of 297,000 units.

Short-Term Forecast: A Cautious Optimism

With building permits showing only a minor increase and housing completions on the decline, there might be cause for concern. However, the robust growth in housing starts offers a silver lining. It suggests an underlying confidence in the market, pointing towards a potentially bullish trend in the upcoming months, but with caution warranted.

About the Author

James Hyerczykauthor

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.