Anarchy or an orderly handover? There are reasons why the markets should worry...
Reading the news wires in recent days, you would have to wonder what has happened to U.S democracy.
This week, there has been the talk of a coup. If the markets contrast recent political moves in the U.S to those in Asia and beyond, the coup is already unfolding.
Trump refuses to concede and has even replaced key officials with loyalists. For the Republican minority, these loyalists are not Republican loyalists but Trump loyalists.
In the 4-years of Donald Trump, we saw the rise of white supremacy and attempts to quash the Black Lives Matter movement.
He failed on one, while continued to avoid condemning the other.
So, the big question is whether U.S President Donald Trump has had ulterior motives since entering the Oval Office.
COVID-19 and the U.S President’s blasé views and mismanagement should have been an immediate red flag. Hindsight can be a wonderful thing… It wasn’t just COVID-19, however.
If we look back at the last 4-years, other than Iran, Trump embraced key enemies of the U.S. Not only did he embrace them but even talked highly of them and called them friends.
Some of Trump’s buddies now include Kim Jong-Un and Vladimir Putin. Not a bad circle when becoming a property mogul once more.
Who needs a cold war when Trump is rubbing shoulders with such reputable political leaders?
Then throw in the clear intent to ruffle China’s feathers and attempt to disrupt peace in the Middle East.
Not only did Donald pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement, he also stepped back from responding to an alleged Iran attack on Saudi oil refineries.
His predecessors would certainly have responded to such a move by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Then consider ISIS and the claim to have killed off ISIS. Europe continues to face terrorism and that is before considering what is happening in Turkey and the Middle East.
Global political disruption and anarchy seem to be the product of Trump’s presidency.
With all of this in mind, one then has to consider what Trump’s true intent was when entering office.
Clearly, the foreign policy rule book was thrown out the window. Worst yet, even the likes of China briefly attempted to be an advocate of globalization.
It didn’t last long, however. In response to ‘Making America Great Again’, China appears to be making China even greater.
While the U.S economy languishes in the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has begun to flourish.
Even more impressive is the fact that China has reportedly reneged on its phase1 trade agreement obligations. Then consider democracy and China’s handling of Hong Kong. The U.S is currently in no position to chastise a failure of democracy…
On the trade front, it was always a matter of time and China bided its time and got the result that it wanted. A trade-friendly Biden President.
Between now and Biden’s inauguration, there is plenty that can go wrong. The biggest threat is that Biden loses the election on a recount or court rulings. Even Republicans have talked these threat down, however.
So, all that is left is for Trump to hand over the keys…
Easier said then done. Will we see the White House Down? The movie involved shootings and more on the lawns of the White House. The film told the story of anarchy in the face of democracy.
Is Trump about to deliver a taste of theater to Capitol Hill?
With friends like Kim Jung Un and even Putin, who supposedly put Trump in office, it is a scary thought.
The markets are certainly calm over the threat of a political coup. Things may change, however, should we see Trump make use of his Presidential powers to further break the democracy of the U.S.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.