ADA Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Mutes Fed Fears to Target $0.50

Key Insights:

• Cardano (ADA) rose by 0.67% on Tuesday to consolidate Monday’s 4.90% rally.
• Sentiment towards the upcoming Vasil hard fork muted the impact of better-than-expected US economic indicators.
• However, technical indicators remain bearish. ADA sits below the 50-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.40 in play.

On Tuesday, ADA rose by 0.67%. Following a 4.90% rally on Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.453.

A bullish morning saw ADA strike a late morning high of $0.463. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4607 before hitting reverse.

In response to better-than-expected US economic indicators, ADA slid to a low of $0.439. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.432, ADA bounced back to end the day at $0.453.

While positive US economic indicators weighed on the broader crypto market, sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork cushioned the blow.

Cardano Updates Continue to Support a September Hard Fork Date

Progress towards the Vasil hard fork remained ADA price positive going into the Wednesday session.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 76% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. Input Output HK called for SPO nodes to continue to upgrade. However, the numbers should now have a muted price impact after hitting 75% on Tuesday.

Investors will now turn their focus to exchanges and DApps, two remaining critical mass indicators that the community will need to reach to trigger the Vasil upgrade.

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ada liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

At the time of writing, the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators were as of August 30. Binance, KuCoin, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gate.io, and HitBTC lead a growing list of exchanges that are in the progress of upgrading. Currently, Bittrue, BitMart, and LCX are hard fork ready.

In summary, three exchanges are hard fork ready, 27 are in progress, while 109 have yet to start. Binance and Kraken are in progress. However, Coinbase has yet to begin the process.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.44% to $0.455.

A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.453 to a high of $0.457 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.452 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.464. ADA would need support from the broader market to break out from the Tuesday high of $0.463.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.476 and resistance at $0.480.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.500. Updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators will continue to deliver ADA price action. However, economic data from China and the US, and FOMC member chatter will also need consideration.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.440 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.43 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.428.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.404. Later today, US economic indicators and FOMC member chatter will also draw attention. Positive stats and hawkish Fed chatter could test investor resilience for a second session.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.456. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, both price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, a breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring R1 ($0.464) and the 100-day EMA ($0.472) into view.