Are Bitcoin Whales Really Dumping Their BTC Holdings On ‘Trump Bump’ Fears?

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by around 26.30% over a month after establishing its record high at around $110,000. As of March 12, it was trading for as low as $80,607, recovering a little after a cooler-than-expected US inflation report.

The primary factors behind the decline are US President Donald Trump’s tariff war and the Federal Reserve’s pause on interest rate cuts. Fears of a US recession have furthered selloff sentiment in the market.

Nonetheless, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin whales on Binance might have reduced their selling pressure recently. Let’s examine further.

Large Bitcoin Holders Avoid Dumping Despite Tariff Fears

The Exchange Whale Ratio on Binance, which measures the proportion of large transactions (top 10 inflows) relative to total exchange inflows, has shown a declining trend in recent weeks.

The data comes amid speculation that Bitcoin whales could be cashing out, fearing volatility triggered by Trump’s tariff war. However, the data tells a more nuanced story.

Historically, rising whale activity on exchanges has coincided with market downturns, as large BTC inflows typically indicate selling pressure.

The chart shows a significant increase in whale inflows throughout 2024, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally and subsequent corrections. However, the most recent decline in the whale ratio (marked in blue) suggests that large holders are no longer offloading BTC at the same pace as before.

In other words, fears of a mass whale exodus appear overstated. Instead, the decline in exchange whale activity could indicate a cooling-off period rather than a panic-driven sell-off.

If this trend continues, it may support Bitcoin’s price and even set the stage for a rebound.

Bitcoin’s Key Macro Indicator Signals Parabolic Moves Ahead

A classic Bitcoin’s macro bull market signal is raising the possibilities of another massive bull run.

The M2 money supply, a key liquidity measure, has just broken above its 100-day exponential moving average (DEMA)—a critical threshold that previously marked the start of Bitcoin’s most explosive rallies.

The chart, created by analyst ‘Merlin The Trader,’ highlights three key moments when Bitcoin entered long-term bull markets:

• Bull Run 1 (2016): M2 money supply broke above its 100 DEMA, coinciding with a multi-year Bitcoin rally that sent prices soaring over 4,000% to new all-time highs.
• Bull Run 2 (2020): A similar breakout in the money supply indicator preceded Bitcoin’s 1,500% rally, fueled by pandemic-driven monetary expansion and institutional adoption.
• Bull Run 3 (2025?): The latest crossover suggests a possible repeat, with Bitcoin already trading above $88,000 despite recent volatility.

Bitcoin has historically thrived in liquidity-rich environments.

When the M2 money supply expands, financial markets tend to benefit from increased capital inflows. The correlation between Bitcoin and liquidity conditions strengthens the case that macro factors could push BTC into price discovery once again.