Oil News: Flat Futures Hide Volatile Setup—Key Levels Could Trigger Big Move

Crude Oil Prices Steady as Demand Cuts Offset China Import Strength

Light crude oil futures are trading flat on Tuesday, holding a tight range between key technical levels. Traders are watching for a decisive move—either a break above $63.34 resistance, which could trigger tests of the 50- and 200-day moving averages at $67.97 and $69.53, or a drop through $59.23 support that opens the door to retesting the recent low at $55.12.

At 09:20 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $61.49, down $0.04 or -0.07%.

Tariff Uncertainty and Demand Downgrades Weigh on Outlook

Oil markets are caught in a holding pattern as mixed macro signals limit conviction. President Trump signaled potential changes to the 25% tariffs on imported autos, including those from Mexico, offering some relief to trade-sensitive assets. But uncertainty remains high, with shifting U.S. trade policy casting a shadow over global demand expectations.

Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their current-year oil demand growth estimates. The IEA now projects demand will rise by just 730,000 barrels per day, down sharply from earlier forecasts above 1 million bpd. Rising trade tensions and weaker economic signals continue to cap consumption growth globally.

China Import Recovery Offers Limited Support

China’s crude imports rose nearly 5% year-on-year in March, with increased flows from Iran providing a tailwind. While this uptick supports near-term demand optimism in Asia, it hasn’t been enough to reverse broader sentiment. Nuclear tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain a wildcard, with U.S. officials signaling a possible crackdown on Tehran’s export capabilities.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan reported a 3% drop in oil output in early April, but volumes remain above its OPEC+ production cap—raising questions about group-wide compliance and its ability to support prices structurally.

Emerging Market Exporters Face Mounting Pressure

The steep drop in oil prices in recent weeks has begun to bite into the finances of key emerging market exporters. Angola was forced to meet a $200 million margin call after a bond-backed financing deal came under pressure. Nigeria, where crude funds over half of the national budget, is now reworking fiscal plans due to falling oil revenue.

Even Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE may need to slow spending as oil trades well below the $69 average assumed in many national budgets, according to Morgan Stanley.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Bias as Demand Concerns Dominate

Crude prices are consolidating, but with demand forecasts being cut and global trade risks unresolved, the weight of evidence points to a bearish short-term outlook. Supportive data from China and occasional geopolitical headlines may slow the slide, but traders appear reluctant to chase upside without a clearer demand catalyst.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.