Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bulls Eye Breakout from Support of Falling Channel

Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Tuesday before finding support at $3,22 and bouncing. Support was seen at a lower descending channel line (red highlight) established by extending the original channel (blue trendlines) by 25%. The low for the day essentially completed an 88.6% Fibonacci extension of the prior upswing. Natural gas is on track to close in a bullish position, in the top third of the day’s trading range. If it does so, a bullish hammer candlestick pattern will be generated.

Bull Hammer Breakout Above $3.38

An upside breakout will be triggered on a rally above today’s high. That would put natural gas in a position to eventually test resistance around the top of the channel. For now, the intersection of two trendline at $3.80 can be used as a proxy for the top of the channel. That price level is another price level defined by last Wednesday’s high of $3.83.

Furthermore, better clarity is provided by potential resistance around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.82, and the 50-Day MA at $3.90. Note that the 20-Day MA is falling and will continue to represent a lower price area. It becomes a more significant potential resistance zone if a similar price level is indicated by other analysis.

Rally From Bottom of Channel Targets Top of Range

There is a chance that bullish signs following the completion of an 88.6% retracement may mark the end of the bearish correction. Keep in mind that advances from current levels are counter-trend rallies within a decline trend channel. A rally above the 20-Day MA, followed by a daily close above it would be supportive of the bullish thesis. Earlier signs of strength would be indicated on a rally above Monday’s high of $3. 61. That price would be an initial short-term target following a breakout above today’s high.

Bullish Signs Need Confirmation

Despite the potential for a bullish reversal from a key support zone, a trigger above today’s high is needed for confirmation of strength. There is always a possibility that the bulls cannot maintain control and the bearish correction continues to lower prices. An area of potential support confluence is shown on the chart from $3.08 to $2.99. That price range includes the potentially significant 200-Day MA as possible support at $3.05.

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